Chinese New Year Atmosphere Intensifies While Consumption Remains Weak; Limited Stock Release Amid High Copper Prices [SMM Copper Cathode Rod Weekly Review]

Published: Jan 17, 2025 10:19

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Copper Cathode Rod: The weekly (1.10-1.16) operating rate of major domestic copper cathode rod enterprises unexpectedly dropped to 70.46%, down 5.9 percentage points MoM, 4.86 percentage points lower than the expected value, and down 2.0 percentage points YoY. As the year-end approaches and the Chinese New Year atmosphere intensifies, coupled with high copper prices, downstream orders were significantly suppressed, leading to a sluggish market trend. Some enterprises have already started reducing operating rates, with holiday schedules moved forward earlier than expected. This week, the operating rate of copper cathode rods declined more than anticipated. From the inventory perspective, copper cathode rod enterprises have begun pre-holiday stocking. Driven by a few large enterprises, the raw material inventory of major domestic copper cathode rod plants increased by 5.11% MoM, reaching 37,210 mt, while finished product inventories rose by 22.84% MoM, recording 68,300 mt. Looking ahead, the overall market is expected to remain weak in consumption. If copper prices do not show a significant decline, it will be difficult to see new orders for pre-holiday stocking. Most copper cathode rod enterprises are expected to suspend operations and take holidays next week. The operating rate of copper cathode rods is projected to drop to 55.05% during the week of 1.17-1.23, down 15.41 percentage points MoM. Due to the earlier Chinese New Year in 2025 compared to 2024, the weekly operating rate is expected to decline by 20.4 percentage points YoY.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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