SMM Weekly Review of Prebaked Anode: Stable Operation on the Supply and Demand Side During the Week, Rising Prices of Raw Material Petroleum Coke Strengthen Cost-Side Support

SMM, January 9:

Raw material side: This week, refinery petroleum coke prices turned upward. The downstream anode material market showed positive purchasing sentiment, with low-sulphur petroleum coke prices continuing to rise. Medium- and high-sulphur petroleum coke sales improved, and prices increased significantly. Specifically, petroleum coke prices at CNOOC refineries saw a wide adjustment this week, ranging from 280-350 yuan/mt. PetroChina's petroleum coke prices in north-east China remained largely stable during the week. For Sinopec, refinery sales improved during the week, with petroleum coke prices rising slightly, with adjustments ranging from 20-50 yuan/mt. Local refineries performed well in terms of sales, with expectations of reduced or halted production during the week. Petroleum coke supply from local refineries decreased, coupled with improved sales following earlier price declines, leading to a predominantly upward trend in local refinery petroleum coke prices this week. As of now, the average price of petroleum coke from local refineries is approximately 1,907 yuan/mt, up 2.45% WoW. In the coal tar pitch market, prices weakened slightly during the week. As of Thursday, SMM data showed the average price of coal tar pitch at 3,590 yuan/mt, down 0.78% WoW. Overall, the cost side of prebaked anodes weakened this week, slightly loosening support for prebaked anode prices.

Supply side, prebaked anode enterprises organized production throughout the year based on orders. According to SMM, prebaked anode production remained stable during the week, with high operating rates and no significant fluctuations in supply. Demand side, domestic aluminum operating capacity remained largely stable, and demand for prebaked anodes in the domestic market was relatively steady.

Brief comment: During the week, raw material petroleum coke continued to strengthen, boosting prebaked anode costs. SMM data showed that as of January 9, the cost of prebaked anodes in China was 4,321 yuan/mt, up 0.8% WoW. Petroleum coke prices rose during the week, supported by reduced supply, and with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, some enterprises still had minor stockpiling needs. In the short term, petroleum coke prices are expected to rise slightly. Coupled with the stable operation of supply and demand for prebaked anodes, prebaked anode prices are expected to remain largely stable in the short term. Moving forward, attention should be paid to the production and operation of prebaked anodes and downstream aluminum enterprises.

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