Ore Supply Undergoes Successive Maintenance, Raw Material Supply Remains Tight, Multiple Tungsten Enterprises Raise Long-Term Contract Quotations [SMM Commentary]

SMM, January 8: Due to limited inventory held by suppliers and the gradual maintenance activities of miners leading to tight supply of raw materials, tungsten prices rose slightly despite no significant improvement in downstream demand. Some downstream enterprises conducted slight pre-holiday restocking for rigid demand. Meanwhile, Jiangxi Tungsten Industry, Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry, and a large tungsten enterprise in Fujian raised their latest long-term contract prices.

Jiangxi Tungsten Industry, Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry, and other tungsten enterprises raised long-term contract prices.

Jiangxi Tungsten Holding Group's guidance price for national standard first-grade black tungsten concentrate in the first half of January 2024 was 143,500 yuan/mtu, up from the previous guidance price of 142,500 yuan/mtu.

The long-term contract prices for the first half of January from Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd. are as follows: 1. 55% black tungsten concentrate: 141,500 yuan/mtu, up by 1,000 yuan/mtu from the previous price; 2. 55% white tungsten concentrate: 140,500 yuan/mtu, up by 1,500 yuan/mtu from the previous price; 3. Ammonium paratungstate (APT, national standard zero grade): 211,000 yuan/mt, up by 1,500 yuan/mt from the previous price. Note: The above prices include 13% VAT.

A large tungsten enterprise in Fujian set its cash long-term contract purchase price for APT in the first half of January at 211,000 yuan/mt. The company's cash long-term contract purchase price in late December was 209,500 yuan/mt.

The Ganzhou Tungsten Industry Association's forecast prices for the tungsten market in January 2025 are as follows: 55% black tungsten ore at 141,500 yuan/mtu, APT at 211,000 yuan/mt, and medium-grain tungsten powder at 320 yuan/kg. (The forecast average prices for December 2024 were: 55% black tungsten ore at 140,500 yuan/mtu, APT at 210,000 yuan/mt, and medium-grain tungsten powder at 320 yuan/kg.)

Tungsten prices have risen since late December. 1.05%

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Since late December, market expectations for tight supply of tungsten raw materials have gradually strengthened, supporting a slight rise in tungsten prices. According to SMM quotations, on January 8, the price of black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) was 143,500–144,000 yuan/mtu, with an average price of 143,750 yuan/mtu, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of 143,750 yuan/mtu represents an increase of 1,500 yuan/mtu, or 1.05%, compared to the previous low of 142,250 yuan/mtu on December 25, 2024.

Outlook

In terms of supply: According to market participants, suppliers currently hold limited raw material inventory, and miners are gradually conducting maintenance, leading to a tight supply of raw materials in the market. In terms of demand: Currently, downstream APT enterprises are engaging in slight pre-holiday rigid demand restocking. However, due to "inverted" prices, downstream enterprises have limited acceptance of high-priced sources. Pre-holiday restocking is expected to remain modest. In summary, SMM expects tungsten prices to show a stable to slightly rising trend in the short term.