In December, the national NPI metal content decreased by approximately 0.98% MoM. In January, the metal content is expected to decrease by approximately 3.21% MoM [SMM Analysis].

SMM reported on January 2 that

in December 2024, China's NPI production in physical content decreased by approximately 1.79% MoM, while metal content fell by about 0.98% MoM. Both physical content and metal content of NPI declined in December, primarily due to winter environmental protection inspections in smelters in north China and the gradual expansion of smelter losses, leading to a slight weakening in actual production compared to the previous month. A smelter in east China saw an increase in physical content, but the grade declined, resulting in limited growth in metal content. Meanwhile, a smelter in south China experienced a slight decrease in physical content, but a significant improvement in grade limited the decline in metal content. Additionally, the physical content and metal content of low-grade NPI both declined in December, mainly due to weaker 200-series stainless steel production and a corresponding drop in low-grade NPI pig iron output from integrated steel mills. Overall, the reduction in domestic NPI metal content in December was concentrated in integrated low-grade NPI.

In January 2025, China's NPI production in physical content is expected to increase by approximately 0.24% MoM, while metal content is projected to decrease by about 3.21% MoM. According to the SMM survey, affected by winter environmental protection production cuts and low NPI prices, smelter losses have expanded, leading to a decline in production at traditional smelters in east and north China. For integrated 200-series stainless steel mills, as they enter the traditional maintenance period, 200-series production is expected to continue its downward trend, resulting in a further decline in low-grade NPI production. Overall, domestic NPI metal content in January is expected to continue its downward trend, with the decline further widening.