In August, the combined import volume of refined lead and lead materials exceeded 80,000 mt. What are the expected import conditions and volumes for September? [SMM Analysis]

According to customs data, in August 2024, the export volume of refined lead was 181 mt, down 48.61% MoM and 97.94% YoY; from January to August, the total export volume of refined lead and lead materials was 30,785 mt, down 72.85% YoY. In August 2024, the import volume of refined lead was 53,286 mt, and the import volume of lead alloy was 29,159 mt. From January to August, the total import volume of refined lead and lead materials was 144,205 mt, up 331.4% YoY.

Due to the favorable import profit of lead ingots in July, some downstream enterprises pre-purchased imported lead, leading to a significant influx of imported lead ingots into the domestic market in August, which noticeably increased the supply in the spot market. As the SHFE/LME price ratio for lead fell in August, the profit margin for lead imports quickly narrowed. Entering September, due to the poor performance of the domestic lead-acid battery consumption market, downstream producers had limited procurement; the social inventory of lead ingots appeared to be ample. In mid-to-late September, the US Fed announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut, weakening the US dollar index and benefiting commodities; the LME lead price center shifted upward. In contrast, the domestic spot lead price faced significant pressure with limited room for increase. SMM believes that the import conditions in September are not optimistic, and the expected replenishment of imported refined lead and alloys will decline sharply.