SiMn Alloy Downstream Demand Weakens, Prices Run Weak [SMM Analysis]

In the futures market, the most-traded contract fluctuated around 6,462 yuan/mt throughout August. The highest settlement price at 10:15 on August 30 was 6,788 yuan/mt, down 15.02% MoM from last month's 7,988 yuan/mt, with the lowest at 6,256 yuan/mt. The market saw significant volatility throughout the month, and under the imbalance of supply and demand, SiMn alloy prices ran weak.

In the spot market, there are still certain cost differences between the north and south. Manganese ore and coke prices were weak. Inner Mongolia remained an area with electricity cost advantages, while electricity prices in other regions fluctuated slightly. The total production cost of SiMn alloy decreased, but the cost drop was smaller than the price drop, leading to severe production losses for SiMn alloy plants. Overall, north China still had cost advantages. Supply side, south China SiMn alloy plants suffered heavy losses, with many suspending production for maintenance, while north China plants, due to lower production costs, had fewer production cuts, resulting in limited production reduction. Demand side, in August, steel mills showed a strong willingness to reduce or suspend production, leading to weak demand for SiMn alloy and low purchasing enthusiasm. Overall, the oversupply situation of SiMn alloy worsened, and spot prices were on a downward trend.

Additionally, according to SMM, the traditional peak season for steel demand in September may see an increase in the number of steel mills resuming production, leading to stronger purchasing enthusiasm for SiMn alloy, mainly restocking as needed. It is expected that the price outlook for SiMn alloy will be strong.