Steel Industry Shock: Rebar Margins Rebound While Hot Rolled Coil Losses Hit Record Highs; Mills Eye September Production Switch?

This week, ferrous metals retreated after a rapid rise. At the beginning of the week, the market said that Asia had shifted to coal-fired power generation due to a natural gas supply deficit, while Indonesia would increase coal production and impose export taxes. The rise in international coal prices was transmitted to China, and coking coal and coke led the gains in ferrous metals; mid-week, the Middle East situation remained volatile, and the U.S. and Iran held differing attitudes toward war, with ferrous metals consolidating at high levels; the pullback in the second half of the week was also mainly due to the weakening of the cost-side logic, as market rumors said long-term iron ore contract negotiations had been completed, expectations for tightening iron ore supply declined, and raw materials turned into the main driver of the pullback. In the spot market, speculative trading and end-user purchase sentiment improved in the first half of the week, while rigid demand remained dominant in the second half, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

As of March 24, the operating rate of 50 electric-furnace steel mills nationwide mainly producing construction materials was 40.42%, up 1.78% WoW from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 41.75%, up 1.88% WoW from the previous period; and daily average production of construction materials was 93,000 mt, up 4,200 mt WoW.

The iron ore futures rose in early trading before gradually retreating during the day. The main contract I2605 ultimately closed at 812 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from the previous trading session.