SMM Analysis: Blast Furnace Capacity Replacement Trends Amid China's Steel Industry Capacity Replacement Measures Suspension

[SMM Steel] MMK Metalurji, a subsidiary of Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works, has suspended production at facilities in Kocaeli and Iskenderun following worker strikes over delayed wage payments. Employees halted operations after agreed salary increases were not reflected in payrolls. Negotiations are ongoing, with the disruption potentially impacting Turkey’s flat steel supply.

[SMM Steel] The European Commission set the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism certificate reference price for Q1 2026 at €75.36/t CO₂, providing the first cost benchmark for importers. Certificates for 2026 imports must be purchased from February 2027, with pricing based on quarterly EU Emissions Trading System averages, shifting to weekly rates from 2027. Ahead of the announcement, the European Steel Association called for expanding CBAM scope, closing loopholes, and accelerating decarbonization support.

[SMM Steel] Price increases by Hoa Phat Group and Formosa Ha Tinh Steel, alongside Vietnam’s 27.83% anti-circumvention duty on Chinese HRC, have supported regional sentiment. Meanwhile, Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act tariff adjustment reduced duties on derivative products to 25%, while core tariffs remained 50%. Combined with China’s capacity control policies and higher raw material costs linked to Middle East tensions, supply is tightening, leading market participants to expect a gradually improving steel market outlook.