Lead Concentrate Import Window Opened but Supply Remained Limited, July Lead Concentrate Imports Increase Was Lower than Expected [SMM Analysis]

Since May, lead concentrate imports have turned profitable, with the import window remaining steadily open for nearly three months, and the profitability of lead concentrate imports continued to expand until the end of July.

In July, lead concentrate imports recorded 95,600 mt, a slight YoY decrease of 0.86% and a MoM increase of 2.42%. The main sources for lead concentrate imports in July were Russia, Oman, and Peru, with the total imports from these three countries accounting for 57.2%.

According to an SMM survey, the current lead concentrate imports are mainly based on long-term contracts. Due to the global supply of lead concentrate remaining tightly balanced, the total volume of mid-year tenders from mines did not increase. Despite the stable opening of the import window and the expanding profitability of lead concentrate imports, the trade market has seen more quotation channels and they have become more active compared to H1. However, the imported lead Pb60% TC quotes have also seen a significant decline, and the actual import profits and total import volume of lead concentrate have increased lower than expected. Entering August, the profitability of lead concentrate imports has narrowed. Additionally, with the increase in various raw material inventories at domestic primary lead smelters and the gradual realization of primary lead maintenance expectations in late August, the tight supply situation of domestic lead mines has slightly eased, and the previously sharply declining imported lead Pb60% TC quotes have also rebounded. According to the survey, there are fewer circulating lead concentrate sources in the market, and smelters mainly rely on annual long-term contracts for lead concentrate imports. The mid-year spot quotes are still primarily based on negative TCs, and the opening of the import window cannot effectively fill the domestic demand gap for high-grade lead concentrate raw materials.