Chrome Ore Inventory Drops to Yearly Low; Ferrochrome Surplus and Chrome Ore Shortage Cause Market Imbalance

This week, chrome ore inventory at national ports significantly declined, down 398,000 mt WoW. The inventory at main ports nationwide is approaching the 2 million mt mark, reaching 2.1337 million mt, a yearly low. Among them, Tianjin Port's inventory decreased by 353,000 mt WoW, dropping to 1.5937 million mt, with the inventory-to-sales ratio reduced to 1.15.

Although this week's chrome ore inventory saw a significant drop, it is related to the arrival schedule of chrome ore ships and the statistical cycle. From this Friday to next Friday, Tianjin Port is expected to receive a large shipment of around 750,000-800,000 mt, which may lead to a recovery in port stocks. This also indicates that the current demand for chrome ore remains relatively strong. Despite ferrochrome manufacturers generally operating at a loss, there are limited reductions or shutdowns, with most maintaining previous operating rates. Given the strong demand for chrome ore, it is expected to remain in tight supply. Additionally, the recent high cost of arriving chrome ore makes a significant short-term price drop unlikely. However, ferrochrome supply is currently in serious surplus. If downstream stainless steel production does not see a significant increase during the traditional September-October peak season, ferrochrome may face further price drops and production cuts, reducing demand for chrome ore. This surplus could further transmit upstream to the ore end. Moreover, with ferrochrome manufacturers operating at a loss and limited room for price compression, while chrome ore prices are at a relatively high historical level, mines are enjoying substantial profits, indicating a larger potential for price decline. Therefore, although chrome ore prices appear firm in the short term, the overall domestic market surplus of chrome elements persists, warranting caution against future price drop risks.