SMM Analysis Of Overseas Alumina Production In July And Forecast For August

In July 2024 (31 days), the production of overseas metallurgical-grade alumina was approximately 4.844 million mt, down 1.4% YoY. The average capacity utilisation rates of global alumina refineries were 80.0%, slightly up 0.6% MoM, but down 3.2% YoY. The cumulative production from January to July 2024 was about 33.427 million mt, up 1.0% YoY.

By region:

Australia: The output in July was 1.423 million mt, down 11.5% YoY. Alcoa's Kwinana alumina refinery was completely shut down by the end of Q2. Additionally, according to Rio Tinto's Q2 report, the Gladstone alumina refineries, Yarwun and QAL, experienced varying degrees of production cuts due to the natural gas pipeline explosion. In July, the capacity utilization rate of the Yarwun refinery dropped to about 73%, down 14% MoM; the capacity utilization rate of the QAL refinery dropped to about 77%, down 11% MoM. Rio Tinto stated that this adverse impact is expected to last until the end of the year, and the annual guidance output has been lowered by about 600,000 mt.

North America: The output for July was 162,000 mt, up 3.7% YoY. The average capacity utilization rate was 70.4%.

South America: The output for July was 974,000 mt, up 4.3% YoY. The average capacity utilization rate was 88.5%.

Africa: The output for July was 34,000 mt, down 0.3% YoY. The average capacity utilization rate was 61.5%.

India: The monthly output was 715,000 mt, up 10.1% YoY. The increase mainly came from Vedanta's alumina refinery in Lanjigarh. In early April 2024, Vedanta announced that the refinery's capacity had increased from 2 million mt to 3.5 million mt, with plans to expand to 5 million mt in the future. According to Vedanta's Q1 FY25 report, alumina production in the quarter (April-June 2024) rose 36% YoY and 11% QoQ to 539,000 mt, reaching a historical high. SMM estimates that the refinery's July output increased by 65,000 mt YoY and expects further growth in the future.

Indonesia: Since Indonesia banned bauxite exports in June 2023, the country's alumina production capacity has rapidly increased. In June, Indonesia's metallurgical-grade alumina output was approximately 329,000 mt, up 17.3% YoY. This was mainly due to the capacity expansion of Nanshan Aluminum's alumina refinery on Bintan Island. An SMM survey shows that the refinery, which started production with 1 million mt in 2022, added another 1 million mt in 2023, bringing the total production capacity to 2 million mt. The current output is close to the nameplate capacity, with July output up 33% YoY. Additionally, PT BAI, a subsidiary of ANTAM and INALUM, commenced production at its alumina refinery in Mempawah, West Kalimantan, in July. The planned capacity of this refinery is 1 million mt.

Russia: Monthly production was 256,000 mt, down 0.3% YoY. The average capacity utilisation rate was about 88.7%.

Europe (excluding Russia): Monthly production was 296,000 mt, up slightly by 0.5% YoY. The average capacity utilisation rate was about 53.7%.

Other Asian regions excluding India, Indonesia, and China: Monthly production was 656,000 mt, down 5.9% YoY. The average capacity utilisation rate was 87.4%.

Forecast for August: According to SMM statistics, the total overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in August 2024 is expected to be 4.862 million mt, down 1.2% YoY. The average capacity utilisation rate is expected to be about 80.3%, up slightly by 0.3% MoM, down 3.1% YoY.