SMM China July Refined Tin Production and August Forecast

According to the SMM survey, China's refined tin production in July reached 15,925 mt, down 2.21% MoM but up 39.75% YoY. In Yunnan, a refined tin smelter still shut down due to handover issues. Although some producers affected by environmental protection inspections in June have resumed normal production and their output has rebounded, the tight supply of mineral resources has impacted the smelting process. Specifically, some smelters had to adjust their production plans and reduce scheduled production due to raw material shortages. Similarly, in Jiangxi, some smelters faced challenges in raw material supply, making it difficult for them to maintain current production levels, resulting in a slight decline in output. In Inner Mongolia, producers maintained a normal production pace, while in Guangxi, a producer saw a significant drop in tin output due to a shutdown for maintenance, but with production expected to resume in early August. Smelters in Anhui and other regions maintained stable production in July. Looking ahead, SMM expects most smelters in Yunnan to maintain their current production levels or slightly reduce output in August. Before the Wa State tin mines in Myanmar are reopened, local smelters will find it difficult to effectively replenish their raw material inventories, making it unlikely for Yunnan smelters to see significant output growth. Similarly, most producers in Jiangxi are unlikely to see production growth in August. In summary, SMM expects China's tin production in August to reach 16,245 mt, up 2.01% MoM and 52.95% YoY.