SMM Analysis Of China Alumina Production In July And Forecast For August

According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina output in July 2024 (31 days) was 7.173 million mt, with an average daily output of 231,400 mt, an increase of 3,300 mt compared to June. The total monthly output rose 4.84% MoM and 4.43% YoY. By the end of July, China's existing capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina was 100.6 million mt, with an operating capacity of 84.46 million mt and an operating rate of 83.5%. From January to July 2024, the total domestic output of metallurgical-grade alumina reached 47.466 million mt, up 3.92% YoY.

By region: Shanxi: The operating rate in July was 79.5%, up 2.9% from June, mainly due to a local alumina refinery increasing its operating capacity since late June by supplementing with imported ore and a small amount of domestic ore, involving an annual capacity of 700,000 mt. Henan: The operating rate in July was 69.9%, up 1.6% from June, mainly due to a local alumina refinery increasing production in late July by supplementing with imported ore, involving an annual capacity of around 700,000 mt. Guizhou: The operating rate in July decreased by 1.5% from June to 80.3%, mainly as a local alumina refinery reduced production in July due to equipment and raw material supply issues, involving an annual capacity of around 140,000 mt. The company also indicated plans to shut down furnaces for maintenance in early August due to equipment issues, with an expected maintenance period of about a week. Hebei: The operating rate in July increased by 8.5% from June to 98.1%, mainly due to a local alumina refinery completing equipment maintenance in July and resuming full production, involving an annual capacity of around 300,000 mt. Guangxi: The operating rate in July rose slightly by 1.1% from June to 90.0%, mainly due to a local alumina refinery reducing production by about a quarter in June due to roasting furnace maintenance, which was completed in mid-July, resuming full production, involving an annual capacity of 300,000 mt. Shandong: The operating rate in July decreased by 2% from June to 92.4%, mainly due to a local alumina refinery reducing production since early June for production line maintenance, involving an annual capacity of around 300,000 mt.

Forecast for August: According to the SMM survey, approximately 500,000 mt of resuming capacity in Henan and 100,000 mt in Inner Mongolia, totaling 600,000 mt, will gradually release output in August. Additionally, a producer in Inner Mongolia plans to commission a second 500,000 mt production line in mid-August, bringing the alumina refinery to full capacity. Therefore, the average daily output of alumina in China is expected to continue increasing in August. However, due to the lack of large-scale resumption of bauxite production in Shanxi and Henan, the supply of domestic bauxite remains tight, which may limit the significant increase in alumina output in these two regions. SMM expects that in August 2024, the average daily output of metallurgical-grade alumina in China will reach 233,000 mt, with a total operating capacity of approximately 85.06 million mt, up 2.8% YoY.