Zinc oxide exports surged in June. What will happen in July? [SMM Analysis]

Exports

According to the latest customs data, zinc oxide exports in June 2024 were 1,774.19 mt, up 75.54% MoM and 20.95% YoY from 1,466.86 mt in June 2023. The cumulative zinc oxide exports from January to June 2024 were 6,458.05 mt, down 25.15% YoY. The data shows a significant MoM increase in zinc oxide exports, with a narrowed YoY decrease.

By country, in June 2024, Vietnam imported 627.22 mt of zinc oxide from China, accounting for 35.35% of the total zinc oxide exports in June, maintaining the top position with a significant MoM increase. The Philippines imported 292.73 mt of zinc oxide from China, accounting for 16.5% of the total, returning to the second position with a notable MoM increase. Thailand imported 221.03 mt of zinc oxide from China, accounting for 12.46%, ranking third, followed by Pakistan and Japan.

The June zinc oxide export volume exceeded expectations. Firstly, the demand for zinc oxide in Southeast Asian countries continued to expand in June, with significant increases in imports from Vietnam, the Philippines, and Myanmar. Secondly, the rise in zinc prices halted in June, with prices falling in the first half of the month compared to May, providing a price advantage that boosted zinc oxide exports. Looking ahead to July, domestic zinc oxide orders in several sectors are expected to continue to decline compared to June due to the off-season, and domestic zinc oxide production is not performing well, making it unlikely that zinc oxide exports will be maintained in July.

Import

According to customs data, zinc oxide imports in June 2024 were 429.81 mt, up 18.63% MoM, but down 34.47% YoY compared to 655.93 mt in June 2023. The cumulative zinc oxide imports from January to June 2024 were 2,986.21 mt, up 7.16% YoY compared to the same period in 2023. The MoM increase in zinc oxide imports in June and the continued expansion of the negative YoY growth indicate that in July, domestic demand for zinc oxide weakened as the automotive sector entered the off-season. Together with the impact of the automotive tariff incident, zinc oxide imports in July are expected to remain low.