Forecast of Polysilicon Capacity Commissioning [SMM Analysis]

Since 2024, the main materials in the photovoltaic sector have been severely impacted by overcapacity, leading to a continuous decline in overall prices. Polysilicon industry has now sufferred industry-wide losses...

According to SMM's current tracking of 24 domestic companies' production lines, about five companies have completely shut down. Overall, this has had a minimal impact on polysilicon supply.

The reduction in polysilicon output mainly comes from the decreased operating rates of other companies, with some even maintaining only low-load operations. These companies have contributed significantly to the reduction.

Regarding future polysilicon capacity commissioning, SMM has learned that due to current cash flow and market pressures, many well-known projects have chosen to delay construction or production. The market reshuffle has quietly begun.

Meanwhile, even overseas capacities are not immune. According to SMM, due to their own cost-effectiveness and the impact on downstream capacities in Southeast Asia, overseas polysilicon sales to China have experienced some degree of stagnation. In July, some manufacturers have already reduced production, with total overseas output dropping from around 8,000 mt to 5,000-6,000 mt.

H2 2024 has already begun. SMM believes that with the reduction in polysilicon supply projects, there will indeed be some relief in supply pressure. However, as of now, H2 polysilicon output is expected to reach around 900,000 mt. The polysilicon industry surplus still exists, and the capacity elimination of producers will continue in H2.