In April, Indonesian total stainless steel exports dropped by approximately 6.58% MoM, Turkey is expected to increase tariffs, which may shift trade flows [SMM Analysis]

In April, Indonesian stainless steel exports to China were about 129,000 mt, down approximately 31,700 mt from March, down 19.72% MoM but up 12.51% YoY.

The top three destinations for Indonesian stainless steel exports were China, China Taiwan, and India. Overall, exports dropped slightly in April. Italy resumed importing stainless steel from Indonesia in April, the first time since June 2023, with the largest increase among the top ten destinations. The decline in Indonesian exports was mainly concentrated in China, Malaysia, and Turkey, with decreases of approximately 31,700 mt, 8,000 mt, and 9,900 mt, respectively, down 19.72% MoM, 54.70% MoM, and 44.18% MoM. China's stainless steel production increased driven by profits, leading to a short-term increase in domestic supply, squeezing external demand, contributing to the decline in exports to China. In addition, stainless steel demand was relatively weak, further narrowing the demand for Indonesian stainless steel. For Malaysia, active stockpiling by Malaysian stainless steel processing factories before and after the Spring Festival and the underperformance of domestic and foreign end-user orders after the holiday led to inventory accumulation, resulting in a decline in demand for Indonesian stainless steel in April. Regarding Turkey, due to the expected increase in import tariffs on Chinese and Indonesian stainless steel to protect local stainless steel producers, imports of Indonesian stainless steel began to decline significantly in April. If the tariff increase is implemented, Indonesian exports to Turkey may further decrease.

In April, stainless steel scrap exports were about 2,400 mt, a MoM decrease of about 46.54% and a YoY increase of about 42.23%; stainless steel billet exports were about 116,500 mt, a MoM decrease of about 25.05% and a YoY increase of about 14.35%; hot-coiled stainless steel exports were about 173,200 mt, a MoM increase of about 7.38% and a YoY increase of about 10.9%; cold-coiled stainless steel exports were about 107,700 mt, a MoM increase of about 0.65% and a YoY increase of about 20.28%; stainless steel wire rod exports were about 6.75 mt, a MoM increase of about 954.69% and a YoY increase of about 147.49%.