SMM Analysis Of China PV Module Production In May And Forecast For June

According to SMM statistics, China's PV module production in May was approximately 52.8GW, down 2.3GW from the previous month, a decrease of 4.2% MoM; compared to the same period last year, the increase reached 25.6%. From January to May 2024, China's cumulative PV module production was about 231.1GW, up 50.1GW YoY, an increase of 78.3%.

In May, the prices in the PV industry chain dropped significantly, and the profit margins of integrated module producers narrowed considerably, even resulting in losses. Additionally, due to PV module production schedules in March and April being much higher than end-user demand, producers faced a sudden increase in inventory pressure. In May, module producers generally reduced their original production plans. Small module factories, amid price competition pressure and reduced order demand, continued to maintain low operating rates. Meanwhile, the US anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on Southeast Asia caused market fluctuations, and the expectation of export restrictions affected the production plans of leading producers in their Southeast Asian bases. Starting in May, module producers gradually lowered their production in Southeast Asia.

In June, the profit margins of module producers have not fully recovered, and the risk of inventory accumulation still exists. Module producers continued to reduce domestic planned production, and production bases in Southeast Asia generally adopted measures to significantly lower operating rates or suspend production. Therefore, the production forecast for PV modules in June is expected to continue to decline, estimated to drop to 46.5GW, down 6.3GW MoM, a decrease of 11.9%.