Primary aluminium: According to customs data, China's primary aluminium net imports stood at 160,000 mt in December 2023, down 7% MoM but up 26.3% YoY. Import was 175,000 mt, down 9.9% MoM, but up by 37.2% YoY. Export was 14,800 mt (most of which were cargoes in special customs supervision area).
The net imports of primary aluminium in 2023 was 1.392 million mt, up 195% YoY. The total import was 1.542 million mt, up 130.8% YoY, while the total export was about 150,000 mt, down 23.4% YoY. (The above data includes two HS codes: 76011010 and 76011090).
Aluminium semis: In December 2023, the exports of aluminium semis reached 456,000 mt, up 0.92% MoM and 1.23% YoY. In 2023, China exported 5.287 million mt of aluminium semis, down 14% YoY.
In terms of products, aluminium extrusion exports in December were 88,900 mt, up 3% MoM and 6% YoY. The cumulative exports in 2023 were 990,800 mt, up 42,800 mt YoY. In December, export volume of aluminium plates/sheets and strips was 243,300 mt, up 2% MoM and 1% YoY. In 2023, the cumulative exports of aluminium plates/sheets and strips were 2.7729 million mt, down 798,600 mt YoY. In December, China exported 104,800 mt of aluminium foil, down 4% MoM and 4% YoY. In 2023, China exported 1.3092 million mt of aluminium foil, down 154,600 mt YoY.
In December, exports of aluminium rods and bars increased MoM and YoY. Aluminium plate/sheet and strip exports also rebounded amid seasonal stockpiling, only aluminium foil exports rose sharply. However, the exports of aluminium plates/sheets and strips, aluminium foil and other products were weak throughout the year, dragging down the total aluminium semis exports in 2023.
Aluminium scrap: In recent years, driven by domestic carbon peak and carbon neutrality policy, the secondary alluminium alloy industry developed rapidly. The domestic aluminium scrap deep-processing capacity expanded year by year, boosting the demand for domestic and imported aluminium scrap. The construction of domestic aluminium scrap recycling system has been continuously improved, but a large amount of aluminium scarp still needs to be imported from overseas for the expanding demand from downstream secondary aluminium alloy processing industry chain.
Customs data showed that in 2023, the domestic aluminium scarp and shredded aluminium scrap imports totalled 1.753 million mt, up 15.7% YoY. Imports of aluminium scarp were around 154,500 mt in December, down 12.3% MoM, but up 20.8% YoY.
For 2024, SMM believes that domestic primary aluminium will maintain a net import. The main sources of imports were still Russian aluminium metal. The domestic primary aluminium import window remained open since late December, and domestic aluminium inventories continued to be low. Traders rushed to import. It is expected that net imports of domestic primary aluminium will remain at a high level in January, or exceed about 180,000 mt. Seasonal replenishment overseas boosted domestic aluminium semis exports. However, the operating rate of domestic aluminium semis processing enterprises fell at the end of the year, and export profits were dragged down by rising overseas freight rates. Domestic aluminium exports were expected to decline slightly from January to February 2024. As CNY holiday is drawing near, the operating rate of domestic aluminium scrap processing companies declined, dragging down the imports of traders. It is expected that domestic aluminium scarp imports may see a seasonal decline. We still need to pay attention on domestic import policies and price differences between the domestic and overseas market.
![Abnormal Inventory Accumulation of Aluminum Ingots in South China in Mid-to-Late March [SMM Analysis]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/production/admin/votes/imagesqsDLb20240416161800.jpeg)
