Brief analysis and outlook for China’s alumina exports in 2023

SHANGHAI, JAN 23 (SMM) –According to China Customs, the cumulative exports from January to December 2023 were 1.2647 million mt, the cumulative imports were 1.8265 million mt, down by 9.63% YoY, and the cumulative net imports stood at 562,900 mt.

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the overseas alumina supply and demand and resource flows have changed. Russia's demand for China's alumina has increased significantly, and China's alumina exports also hit new highs from 2022 to 2023. Russian aluminium announced in October 2023 that it had entered into agreement with Hebei Wenfeng Industrial Group Co., Ltd., and the latter agreed to sell 30% of entire equity of Hebei Wenfeng New Materials for a consideration of RMB 1.911 billion. As part of the transaction, the seller, Hebei Wenfeng New Materials, the controlling persons and the purchasers will enter into a shareholders' agreement to govern the rights and responsibilities of each shareholder of Hebei Wenfeng New Materials and the conduct of the affairs, including but not limited to ownership, management and operation. Based on this, it cannot be ruled out that China's alumina exports are still expected to grow in the future.

The top five countries in terms of China's alumina export volume in 2023 were Russia (1.1158 million mt, 88.23% of all), the United Arab Emirates (32,800 mt, 2.59% of all), Indonesia (31,300 mt, 2.48% of all), Taiwan, China (15,400 mt, 1.22% of all) and South Korea (9,000 mt, 0.71% of all) respectively.

Overall, Russia still maintained as China's largest alumina exporter in 2023. Geopolitical factors and the supply and demand pattern of overseas alumina markets are the most important factors that keep Russia at the top of the list all year round. In addition, in 2023, alumina production in some areas will be limited due to roasting, ore and other reasons. However, in recent years, the capacity of new overseas aluminum projects is expected to be considerable. New overseas alumina production capacity is mainly concentrated in Asia. Indian alumina refinery Vedanta plans to expand alumina production capacity by 3 million mt. Vietnam's Tan Rai alumina refinery and Nhan alumina refinery with a production capacity of 650,000 mt will remain at full capacity in the short term. In addition, the alumina projects invested and constructed in Indonesia by two large domestic aluminum groups, Tianshan Aluminum and Jinjiang Group, with a total of 2 million tons of alumina production capacity will be put into production in 2025. By then, China's alumina import and export trade may undergo new changes.