SMM Analysis Of China Bauxite Imports In November 2023

Customs data for November 2023 shows China's bauxite imports at 11.9280 million mt, up 7.19% MoM and 1.17% YoY. Guinea led with 8.008 million mt, up 13.05% MoM and up 10.03% YoY. Australia follows with 3.501 million mt, up 2.03% MoM and up 23.45% YoY. Other sources include: Ghana (165,000 mt), Turkey (155,000 mt), Montenegro (52,000 mt), Brazil (40,000 mt), and Guyana (5,600 mt).

As for the main sources of bauxite, 8.008 million mt were imported from Guinea in November, accounting for 67.14% of the total imported bauxite; 3.501 million mt were imported from Australia, accounting for 29.36%. From January to November, 91.1035 million mt were imported from Guinea, a YoY increase of 41.74%, accounting for 70.2% of the total imported bauxite; 31.4417 million mt were imported from Australia, a YoY increase of 0.23%, accounting for 24.23%. Bauxite imports from Guinea picked up again MoM in November. According to SMM analysis, the main reason is that the impact of the rainy season on Guinea’s ore shipments has basically ended. Guinea’s rainy season is from May to October every year. In November, the rainy season in Guinea was basically over, driving shipments to China to pick up. There was a significant YoY increase in ore imports from Australia in November, but the total volume from January to November showed only a YoY growth of 0.23%. Therefore, in 2023, China’s total bauxite imports from Australia did not increase significantly.

In terms of non-mainstream sources of bauxite imports, the ores from Ghana, Turkey, Montenegro, Brazil, and Guyana in November totaled 417,600 mt, accounting for 3.5%. The overall non-mainstream ore trade is still relatively brisk.

The Guinea oil depot explosion in December 2023 ignited market sentiment, pushing up alumina futures prices. On December 18, a huge explosion occurred at the Conakry oil depot of the Guinea Petroleum Company. Then, fuel sales were banned, and tank trucks were prohibited from leaving Conakry to inland area of Guinea. In order to solve the supply problem, the Guinean government requisitioned part of the company's oil depots, and negotiated with neighboring countries to import some oil to meet urgent needs. This news triggered market concerns about the impact on diesel supply and bauxite production and shipments. However, according to SMM research, this news did not significantly affect bauxite supply in the short term. Judging from export volume of bauxite from Guinea ports, Guinea’s bauxite shipment is still within the normal fluctuation range. At present, it seems that oil depot explosion in Guinea will have limited impact on the supply of bauxite. Eased concerns over bauxite supply disruptions drove the alumina futures prices to decline.