As the rainy season's impact lessens, China’s bauxite imports from Guinea rebounded in October and are expected to rise further in November

Customs data for October 2023 shows China's bauxite imports at 11.1273 million mt, up 11.0% MoM and 23.97% YoY. Guinea led with 7.084 million mt, up 4.61% MoM and up 60.51% YoY. Australia follows with 3.4229 million mt, up 26.86% MoM and up 3.44% YoY. Other sources include: Turkey (226,700 mt), Sierra Leone (147,600 mt), Ghana (104,400 mt), Jamaica (45,000 mt), Brazil (43,500 mt), Malaysia (39,900 mt), and Laos (13,400 mt).
Guinea contributed 63.66% of China's bauxite imports and imports from this country saw recovery in October as the rainy season's effects subsided. Though improved from September, October's imports were below the 8 million mt seen from March to July. October 2023's MoM rise in bauxite imports from Guinea was less than the 16.97%, 9.52%, and 6.38% increases in the same period of 2020, 2021, and 2022. SMM attributes this to an extended rainy season in Guinea, which more heavily affected ore shipments than in previous years.
Non-mainstream ore sources, including from Turkey, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Jamaica, Brazil, Malaysia, and Laos, reached 620,300 mt in October, 5.58% of total imports. Strict safety and environmental policies have led to mining restrictions in Shanxi and Henan, causing domestic shortages. Alumina refineries are thus turning to non-mainstream sources while maintaining long-term contracts with Guinea and Australia. This trade has helped but doesn't fully meet demand, and high costs make these sources unsustainable as primary supply, leaving a supply gap.
Guinea's bauxite exports to China soared in October, with shipments due to arrive in China in late November after 40-45 days at sea. November's import volumes from Guinea are expected to increase further. Bauxite imports from Guinea will rise in December post-rainy season, but October-November disruptions may limit growth. SMM reports Guinean long-term bauxite contracts underperform in 2023 due to disruptions and quality issues, possibly delaying fulfillment into Q1 2024.