China iron ore imports in October fell by 2% MoM, and may keep edging down in November

China’s import volume of iron ore and concentrate in October was 99.385 million mt, down 1.8% MoM but up 4.6% YoY. The dip in imports in October was because: 1) Falling port work efficiency amid fallout of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day holiday affected import customs declaration; 2) With shrinking pig iron output amid maintenance of more BFs hurt iron ore demand. Meanwhile, according to SMM shipping data, the average monthly arrivals at major ports also deceased in October.

SMM predicted that iron ore imports will continue to decline in November, mainly because 1) With scheduled maintenance of BFs, pig iron output will keep decreasing, weakening iron ore demand; 2) High ore prices will blunt buying appetites of steel mills; 3) With overseas mines’ year-end shipment rush, it is expected that iron ore import volume will not decrease significantly.