Citi Says Iron Ore Prices Could Reach $130/mt By Year-End If China Steps Up Policy Stimulus

On April 2, the Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Decision No. 612/QD-BCT, imposing a temporary anti-circumvention tariff of up to 27.83% on certain hot-rolled steel products from China. The measure applies to specific flat-rolled steel products (alloy or non-alloy), with thicknesses of 1.2–25.4mm and widths between 1,880mm and 2,300mm, that have not been further processed beyond hot rolling.

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

Today, the DCE iron ore fluctuated in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2605 eventually closing at 799.5 yuan/mt, down 0.50% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills mainly restocked to meet rigid demand; as of now, spot market transactions were mediocre.