SMM Morning Comment For Aluminium Market On October 30

At last Friday’ night session, the most-traded SHFE 2312 aluminum contract opened at 18925 yuan/mt, with its low and high at 18925 yuan/mt and 19145 yuan/mt before closing at 19140 yuan/mt, up 235 yuan/mt or 1.24%. LME aluminum opened at $2200/mt last Friday, with its low and high at $2187/mt and $2230.5/mt respectively before closing at $2225.5/mt, up $29/mt or 1.32%. In summary, overseas macroeconomic uncertainty persists. US economic data shows resilience, but the high fluctuation of the dollar index is putting pressure on commodities. Domestically, the additional one trillion yuan of sovereign bonds indicates robust policy measures. Some aluminium billet producers have cut output, casting ingot volume has increased, and potential Yunnan production cuts remain unconfirmed. Short-term domestic aluminium supply is high, with minor profits from imported aluminium ingot spot transactions, and imported goods volume remains stable. As downstream consumption transitions between peak and off-peak periods, aluminium ingot inventory reduction is slow, keeping inventory at a six-month high. Short-term aluminium prices are likely to fluctuate, with the most-traded SHFE contract expected to trade between 18,600 and 19,400 yuan/mt, and LME aluminium likely between $2,140 and 2,300 /mt in the week ending November 3.