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Spot copper discounts in Shanghai are expected to stay under pressure tomorrow. Despite a slight pickup in procurement as downstream firms resume operations, sustained supply continues weighing on sentiment. With the Contango spread at 350-420 yuan/ton, warrant holders' delivery incentive persists, diverting spot liquidity. Imported and domestic copper arrivals continue amid incomplete downstream recovery, pushing social inventories higher. SMM data shows copper social inventories in mainstream Chinese regions reached a historically high 532,700 tons post-holiday. Unmatched delivery warrant outflows will further pressure spot premiums. The market remains in early-stage post-holiday rebalancing, with supply-side pressures set to keep spot discounts under pressure.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, spot discounts for SHFE copper are expected to remain under pressure. Although procurement and sales sentiment saw a slight rebound intraday, with some downstream enterprises resuming production and gradually entering the market for inquiries and purchases, the overall market remains constrained by sustained supply-side increases. From a market structure perspective, the contango spread between nearby futures contracts remains in the range of 420–350 yuan/mt, and suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses continues, further diverting spot liquidity. Meanwhile, both imported and domestic copper arrivals persist, while downstream consumption has not fully resumed production, leading to a supply-demand mismatch that continues to drive social inventory buildup. According to SMM, social inventory of copper cathode in mainstream domestic regions continues its post-holiday accumulation trend, with the total reaching 531,700 mt, a historically high level. Additionally, the release of unmatched delivery warrants will further pressure spot premiums and discounts. Overall, the market is in the early stages of post-holiday supply-demand rebalancing, and with supply-side pressures dominating, spot discounts are expected to remain under pressure tomorrow.