SMM Survey: #201 Cold-Rolled Coil Production to Fall

[SMM Steel] According to World Steel Association (worldsteel) data released on March 25, 2026, global crude steel production in February totaled 141.8 million tons, a 2.2% decrease year-on-year. For the first two months of 2026, total global output reached approximately 298 million tons, down 1.5% compared to the same period last year.

Dalian iron ore futures trended weaker throughout the day. The most-traded I2605 contract concluded the session at 806.5 RMB per tonne, a decrease of 1.83% from the previous trading day. In the physical market,

Back to HRC fundamentals, impact from maintenance for hot-rolled products was 80,600 mt this week, down 234,300 mt WoW; impact from maintenance for hot-rolled products next week is expected at 9.34 mt, an increase of 12,800 mt from this week. Inventory-wise, destocking continued in Ningbo, Lecong, and Tangshan, while inventories in Shanghai and Zhangjiagang edged up slightly. Overall inventory was still expected to remain in a destocking trend. Attention should be paid to tomorrow's SMM weekly HRC balance. In the short term, HRC prices were still expected to fluctuate with costs, with limited momentum for further gains.