The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday raised its forecast for global oil demand this year, which will significantly boost oil demand this year after China optimizes its anti-epidemic policies. At the same time, the IEA predicts that there will be a supply shortage in the second half of this year.
Global oil demand will soar to a record 101.9 million bpd this year, driven almost entirely by buoyant demand in Asia, the IEA said in its monthly report, a forecast that was 200,000 bpd higher than the IEA's figure last month.
The above data also means that this year's oil demand is expected to grow by 2 million barrels per day, of which Asian countries will account for 1.4 million barrels per day, and China alone will account for 900,000 barrels per day.
The IEA said that after China optimizes its anti-epidemic measures, the Chinese economy will also usher in a recovery, which will restore its established role as the main engine of global oil demand growth, which is the main reason why the IEA raised its global oil demand forecast.
The IEA believes that in the post-epidemic era, air travel will increase significantly, and aviation fuel will become the core pillar of the rebound in global demand. Global jet fuel demand is expected to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day this year to 7.2 million barrels per day, about 90% of pre-pandemic global demand.
In the second half of the year, with the recovery of demand and the decline of Russian production, the global oil market will return to the situation of short supply. The IEA expects oil demand to exceed supply by 1.4 million bpd in the third quarter and 1.9 million bpd in the fourth quarter.
In its report last month, the IEA gave figures that suggested a shortfall of 1.6 million bpd in oil supply in the third quarter of 2023 and 2.1 million bpd in the fourth quarter.
Russian oil exports rose by 300,000 bpd to 8.2 million bpd in January, despite Western sanctions, including price caps on Russian oil, and a European Union ban on Russian oil imports that took effect in December last year.
The IEA said it was unclear how the EU oil embargo and price caps that came into effect earlier this month would affect oil trade flows, but we expected Russia would have to cut some oil production.
The IEA expects about 1 million barrels per day of Russian oil output to be forced offline by the end of March as the sanctions mount. However, this figure is much lower than the 1.6 million barrels per day estimated by the IEA at the beginning of the year.
In response to further sanctions from Europe and the United States, Russia announced a unilateral production cut last week. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia plans to voluntarily cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March as a countermeasure against Western price limits on Russian oil.
Russia plans to divert more than 80% of its crude oil and 75% of its oil products to "friendly countries" by 2023, Novak said this week. He also warned of uncertainty in the global oil market, saying OECD group countries including the United States, Canada and Norway may release their strategic oil reserves.
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