Diverging African Supply: June China Copper Anode Imports Recover, Q3 Maintenance May Weigh on Imports [SMM Analysis]

SMM July 21 News:

According to GAC data, China imported 73,000 mt of copper anode (HS code: 74020000) in June 2026, up 6.34% MoM and 6.63% YoY. Cumulative imports from January to June 2026 totaled 404,900 mt, up 6.87% YoY.

By country, in June 2026, China's copper anode imports from Zambia were 27,600 mt, accounting for 37.81% of the total, down 37.81% MoM but up 0.66% YoY; imports from the DRC were 24,000 mt, accounting for 32.80%, up 54.33% MoM and 104.78% YoY; imports from South Africa were 5,400 mt, accounting for 7.38%, up 101.91% MoM but down 13.54% YoY.

By trade mode, in June 2026, China imported 29,700 mt of copper anode under Ordinary Trade, 35,700 mt under processing trade with imported materials, 2,700 mt under Entry and Exit Goods in Bonded Control Areas, and 4,900 mt under Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area.

For copper scrap ingots, China imported 48,900 mt of copper scrap ingots (red/copper ingots) (HS code: 74031900) in June 2026, up 45% MoM and 41% YoY. Cumulative imports from January to June 2026 totaled 270,100 mt, up 19% YoY.

China's copper anode imports rebounded in June, with growth mainly from the DRC, South Africa, and Malaysia. The increase from the DRC was primarily driven by the ongoing ramp-up of copper smelting capacity at the Kamoa mine, while growth from South Africa and Malaysia mainly came from scrap-derived copper anode. Imports from Zambia declined due to local crude smelting capacity maintenance, and imports from Chile fell on fewer long-term contracts this year and weaker import parity.

China's copper anode supply is constrained by tighter policies on the copper scrap industry, driving up demand for imported anode. Future import growth from Southeast Asia warrants attention. In Q3, Zambia's crude smelting capacity will enter a period of concentrated maintenance, which, combined with recurring logistics pressures in Africa, is expected to weigh on China's copper anode imports in Q3.