[SMM Cobalt Market Flash] SMM VP Shirley: Indonesia MHP Cobalt to Rise as Global Supply Shifts to Dual-Centre Model

LME nickel prices and China's stainless steel futures strengthened this week, but the positive impact on trading volumes and market prices remained limited, with sluggish sales across Asia, Europe, and the US. In Chinese Taiwan, downstream buyers struggled to absorb June price increases from upstream mills, adopting a wait-and-see stance with most transactions concluded at May price levels, pressuring local distributors. India, by contrast, held steady, supported by demand from the automotive, industrial equipment, and infrastructure sectors. With BIS import restrictions eased through October, downstream manufacturers have grown more accepting of rising raw material costs, and end users are gradually absorbing the increased pricing pressure.

LME nickel futures edged down just USD3 on June 2 to close at USD19,248/ton, firmly defending the USD19,200 threshold despite a minor pullback from a recent one-month high. Nickel is up USD186 this month and 15.6% year-to-date. LME inventories fell 1104 tons to 275,340 tons (-0.15% MTD), with Indonesian MHP output declines adding to supply tightness. While firm US labor data rekindled Fed inflation concerns, steady Chinese stainless steel demand and declining stockpiles offset seasonal supply increases from the Philippines, keeping nickel positioned for narrow-range stability.

Luxembourg-based stainless steel producer Aperam has raised alloy surcharges for its European austenitic stainless steel flat products for June, effective June 1, 2026. The surcharge for 304 rose to EUR 2365/ton from EUR 2243/ton in May; 316L increased to EUR 4056/ton from EUR 3813/ton; and 309S moved up to EUR 3192/ton from EUR 3020/ton. Ferritic grade 409 bucked the trend with a slight decrease to EUR 917/ton from EUR 921/ton.