China's March silver (unwrought silver ingots with purity ≥99.99%, HS code 71069110) imports reached 398.62 mt, up 93% MoM, fulfilling expectations of rising silver ingot imports. Cumulative imports from January to March 2026 totaled 639.91 mt, surging 5,346% from 11.75 mt in the same period of 2025.
Historical Comparison: Similarities and Differences Between Two Import Windows
Historically, in 2023, surging PV demand widened silver price spreads in and outside China, and silver imports grew significantly (imports in June 2023 surged 5,329%). The similarity between this round and the historical pattern lies in the short-term surge in PV industry demand — in 2023, it was driven by the scaled-up commissioning of silver powder and silver paste capacity, while in 2026, it was driven by PV export rush stockpiling. Both were underpinned by rigid demand for industrial physical silver.
The difference is that in 2026, precious metals experienced a rare bull market driven by both industrial demand and interest rate cut cycles. Retail investment demand exacerbated industrial raw material shortages, and China's spot silver ingot market saw significant premiums, boosting physical import profitability. In addition to silver ingots, silver-containing products and crude silver raw materials also entered China in large volumes as semi-manufactured products, which were then processed into silver ingots for circulation.
Drivers of the Import Surge This Round
1. PV Export Rush Stockpiling
Solar cell and module manufacturers needed to complete order deliveries before the export tax rebate cancellation on April 1. Intermediate processing segments stockpiled large volumes of raw materials in Q1, with certain manufacturers being the core drivers of the industrial import surge.
2. Retail Investment Demand
Against the macro backdrop of global interest rate cuts, US debt crisis concerns, and safe-haven demand in Q1, gold and silver became important asset allocation options, with silver gaining popularity as a "gold alternative." After gold prices repeatedly hit new highs, small-denomination investment silver bars were heavily traded as alternatives to high-priced gold investments.
3. Sustained Arbitrage Window
Domestic silver prices, driven by robust demand, were significantly higher than London spot prices. Stable SHFE silver premiums prompted global traders to ship silver to China for arbitrage. Some silver ingots exported through China's processing trade were not shipped to Europe or the US but were instead re-imported by traders directly into the Shenzhen market, forming a unique "export-to-domestic sales" pathway. Q2 Outlook: Pulse-Like Rally Fades
Entering Q2, the explosive import growth is expected to be unsustainable. Although China's silver prices still carried a premium over London, physical demand and spot premiums had shifted, with some traders' imported silver ingots already experiencing sluggish sales in late March.
The demand side weakened simultaneously. Both industrial and investment demand in China declined, and the spot market softened further. After the PV export rush ended, silver nitrate manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm dropped sharply; silver prices moving sideways and uncertainty over Middle East conflicts cooled investment enthusiasm, with funds previously flowing into the precious metals market redirected to high-momentum markets such as the US dollar, US Treasuries, and crude oil. China's silver ingot market transitioned from "scarce supply" in April to "trading at discounts with no takers," and as month-end approached, suppliers were forced to cut premiums for bulk shipments or transfer inventory to participate in SHFE deliveries.
Profit margins were sharply compressed. The spot premiums, which peaked at 3,650 yuan/kg in February, had pulled back to near parity by April. Some suppliers sold at discounts due to cash flow needs, import silver ingot profits declined significantly, and the arbitrage window disappeared.
Overall, the record-breaking silver imports in Q1 were a "pulse-like" rally driven by both retail investment fever and PV export rush stockpiling. As both drivers faded simultaneously, combined with assessments of actual trade market orders, imports in April are expected to pull back.
