Geopolitical Tensions Released Easing Signals, Spot Trades Slowed Down After Tin Prices Strengthened [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Review, April 8, 2026

The most-traded SHFE tin SN2605 contract opened higher during the night session and then consolidated at highs, moving sideways. It closed at 376,040 yuan/mt this morning, up 3.24%. LME moved in tandem, with LME three-month tin last quoted at $48,040/mt, up 3.20%.

Macro sentiment saw a pivotal marginal improvement, as the Middle East geopolitical situation released relatively clear signals of de-escalation. On the news front, the US President announced on April 7 that he "agreed to suspend bombings and strikes against Iran for a two-week period." Shortly after, Iran's Foreign Minister announced in the early hours of April 8 that the Strait of Hormuz would achieve safe navigation within two weeks. Although both sides have entered a limited two-week negotiation window, compared to the previous stalemate, this substantive progress effectively dispelled the market's extreme panic over shipping blockades and an energy crisis. Expectations for an eventual ceasefire increased significantly, and with the recovery of macro risk appetite, capital inflows provided partial support to the non-ferrous metals sector as a whole.

However, as futures prices gapped up, spot market trading activity cooled notably. Facing elevated prices, downstream enterprises' purchase willingness was significantly suppressed, with the market largely adopting a wait-and-see approach. Only sporadic rigid-demand orders were concluded this morning. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of rapidly rising futures, suppliers actively narrowed spot premiums to facilitate transactions. However, dominated by strong "fear of heights" sentiment among downstream buyers, the spot market overall still exhibited a pronounced "prices without trades" pattern.

Overall, tin's higher opening was primarily driven by macro tailwinds from the two-week temporary ceasefire and strait navigation agreement reached in the Middle East. In the short term, the recovery of macro sentiment driven by ceasefire expectations will continue to dominate futures movements. However, on the fundamentals side, weak spot transactions under high prices will impose some constraints on upside potential. Subsequent trends require close monitoring of further developments in the Middle East situation during the two-week negotiation period, as well as the actual buying momentum from downstream enterprises after futures consolidate at highs. Tin prices are expected to mainly follow a relatively strong, fluctuating trend at highs in the near term.