Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,913/mt. As the market expected easing geopolitical tensions outside China, the overall center of LME lead moved higher. After holding firm above the 20-day moving average, it also attempted to break above the 40-day moving average, and during the night session it once surged to $1,944/mt, the highest level in nearly half a month. By the close, however, bulls took profits, and LME lead gave back part of its gains, finally closing at $1,939/mt, up 1.65%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,690 yuan/mt. Supported by the rise in LME lead and the drawdown in lead ingot warrant inventory, SHFE lead fluctuated upward and held firm above the 40-day moving average, with an intraday high of 16,770 yuan/mt. It finally closed at 16,765 yuan/mt, up 1.02%; its open interest fell to 58,434 lots, down 3,234 lots from the previous trading day.
On the macro front:
US President Trump said he would consider a ceasefire only if the Strait of Hormuz remained open. Iran responded that the strait would not be opened to enemies and that reports of a request for a ceasefire were entirely false. Reports said the US military would double its deployment of A-10 attack aircraft in the Middle East. Trump was also "seriously considering" withdrawing the US from NATO. In an open letter to the American public, the Iranian president said the US had effectively become Israel's proxy, and that Iran harbored no hostility toward other countries and had absolutely not started the war. Iran was also said to have required any ceasefire talks to be premised on a permanent end to the war, while US intelligence agencies believed Tehran currently had no intention of engaging in substantive negotiations. In addition, US ADP employment data for March increased by 62,000, far exceeding expectations, while wage growth accelerated. The US ISM manufacturing PMI hit its strongest level since 2022, and soaring input costs intensified inflation concerns. US retail sales in February posted the biggest increase in eight months, up 0.6% MoM and beating expectations, with recovering auto consumption supporting domestic demand.
:
In yesterday's spot lead market, SHFE lead rose strongly, and suppliers became significantly more willing to make shipments, while gradually lowering quoted premiums, especially for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site, where premiums declined. Mainstream producing areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works, while a small number of regions quoted premiums of 100 yuan/mt. In the secondary lead market, smelters actively offered cargoes for sale, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment remained strong. Inquiries were moderate, but purchases were cautious, and spot market trading activity weakened.
Inventory: As of April 1, LME lead inventory was unchanged from the previous day at 281,700 mt; SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory stood at 51,244 mt, down 1,797 mt from the previous trading day; SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions continued to decline this week, though the pace of decline narrowed markedly.
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
Recently, signs emerged of easing geopolitical tensions outside China, weakening market risk-off sentiment and driving a relative rebound in nonferrous metals. Among them, as imported lead flowed into the Chinese market, spot supply outside China tightened, lifting the center of LME lead higher. In the Chinese market, bullish and bearish factors coexisted. On the one hand, some medium- and large-sized secondary lead enterprises plan maintenance; on the other hand, as the traditional off-season for the lead-acid battery market approaches, expectations for lead consumption are weakening. Overall, supported by a favorable macro backdrop, lead prices are expected to continue to hold up well in the short term, but with limited fundamental support, caution is warranted against the risk of a subsequent pullback.
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data was processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.
