The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Opened Sharply Lower in the Night Session and Then Rebounded Rapidly, While Downstream Buyers Remained Mostly Cautious in the Face of High Prices and Fluctuations [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Briefing, March 30, 2026:

Futures: the most-traded SHFE tin contract opened sharply lower in the night session and then rebounded rapidly, closed at 362,930 yuan/mt, up 2.65%.

Macro: (1) For a long time, drone power systems have followed two paths: fuel-powered systems are often used in medium-sized and large drones, offering strong power and long driving range, but with obvious noise. Pure electric drive, by contrast, is more often equipped on small or micro drones, featuring quiet operation, strong concealment, and low infrared signature, but poor driving range. What if the two were combined in a hybrid system to balance endurance and silence? On December 10, 2025, a 60 kW hybrid electric propulsion system underwent flight-engine integrated commissioning tests. It enables an aircraft to "fly on electricity and generate power with fuel." The gas turbine does not directly drive the aircraft, but instead directly drives the generator to charge the battery, while thrust during flight is provided by an electric ducted fan. This range-extended hybrid system combines the long driving range of fuel with the quiet advantages of electric power. Compact in size, the system is an "all-around partner" for electric aircraft. It generates electricity while flying, extending range while eliminating the lengthy charging process, enabling faster deployment. During flight, the engine can be shut down and switched to pure electric mode, reducing heat generation and improving quietness. The ducted fan that actually provides propulsion for the aircraft is more like a propeller installed inside a cylindrical "shroud," producing lower noise and truly achieving "arriving quietly and leaving quietly." At present, the 60 kW hybrid electric propulsion system has completed flight demonstration and validation, and the hybrid "heart" for small drones is gradually maturing. (2) According to Nikkei, US EV maker Tesla (TSLA.O) is expected to double the number of its directly operated service outlets in Japan this year to more than 30, aiming to improve after-sales service and expand market share. Tesla currently has 14 service centers across the country, mainly located in major cities. These service centers are equipped with facilities for vehicle inspection, maintenance, and repair, including auto body repair. Many of the new service centers will be established near Tesla dealers. The company will use ready-made sites previously used as repair workshops to rapidly expand its service outlet network at lower cost. In areas without directly operated service centers, Tesla cooperates with local auto repair institutions to provide clients with more than 50 vehicle maintenance service points.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: In March, most smelters gradually resumed production and operations, ending their holiday status. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remained relatively cautious. Downstream enterprises gradually began to resume production and operations, but orders were relatively mediocre.

Spot market: Last week, spot market transactions fluctuated with price fluctuations. When prices plunged rapidly to low levels, downstream demand to restock on dips was released in a concentrated manner, and transactions were active for a time. However, as futures rebounded, most enterprises turned to digest inventories, with wait-and-see sentiment dominating. Market trading turned subdued again, while suppliers generally maintained high premium quotes. Facing high prices and fluctuations, downstream players mostly remained cautious.

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