Macro Sentiment Wavered, BC Copper Closed Flat After Wide Intraday Swings [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at the intraday low of 84,920 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward in early trading to a high of 85,560 yuan/mt, and then saw wide swings. After the daytime session opened, the center of copper prices gradually moved lower and bottomed at 83,820 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward again to finally close at 84,250 yuan/mt, up 0.01. Open interest stood at 2,336 lots, down 1,966 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 4,070 lots, indicating short covering by bears. On the macro front, the US continued to release signals of negotiation and proposed 15 conflict resolution plans to Iran. Although Iran denied direct negotiations, market concerns over geopolitical conflict eased somewhat, and overall macro sentiment remained volatile. Fundamentally, on the supply side, arrivals of both domestic and imported cargoes were steady, and spot availability in the market was ample. On the demand side, copper prices fluctuated at highs, suppressing downstream purchase willingness, while end-users only maintained restocking for rigid demand, with weak transactions.

The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 95,320 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract at 84,250 yuan/mt, its tax-inclusive price was 95,202 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was 118, and the spread returned to a contango structure.