Geopolitical agreement final signing date set, the most-traded SHFE tin contract returned above 420,000 [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Commentary, June 15, 2026

Today, influenced by the final clarification of overseas geopolitical situations and domestic liquidity positives, SHFE opened higher in the morning and then traded sideways. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 410,170 yuan/mt and closed at 425,940 yuan/mt this morning, up 4.37%. On the LME side, three-month tin also strengthened, currently quoted at $55,250/mt, recording a gain of 2.35%.

On the macro front:

(1) On June 14, US President Trump posted on social media that the US-Iran agreement is “now completed” and that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. Trump stated that he had formally approved the opening of the Strait of Hormuz with no toll fees, and ordered the immediate lifting of the US Navy’s maritime blockade on Iranian ports. On June 15, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi confirmed that the text of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding has been finalized and the official signing ceremony for the “Islamabad Memorandum” will be held in Switzerland on the 19th.

(2) The central bank conducted 600 billion yuan in outright reverse repo operations. According to the People’s Bank of China’s official website, to maintain ample banking system liquidity, on June 15, 2026, the People’s Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan in outright reverse repo operations using fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple price bidding methods, with a tenor of six months (183 days), maturing on December 15, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays). The major central bank’s large-scale half-year liquidity injection stabilized mid-year funding conditions.

In the spot market, as the price center of futures rebounded sharply this morning, trading activity in the spot market cooled rapidly. With absolute prices surging back above 420,000 yuan/mt (LME 3M price at $55,000/mt), downstream enterprises showed weak inquiry and purchase willingness. Moreover, during the consecutive price declines in previous days, downstream enterprises had progressively released part of their pent-up demand. At current elevated levels, downstream enterprises largely adopted a wait-and-see stance.

Overall, the sharp rebound in tin prices this morning was mainly driven by the market sentiment swing following the formal signing of the geopolitical ceasefire agreement. In the near term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to sustain trading within the current high range. Attention will remain on the actual implementation of the geopolitical memorandum of understanding, to be formally signed on the 19th, and whether the key maritime chokepoints can truly maintain smooth passage.