Published: 8 April 2026
(Kitco News) – BRICS+ nations now hold 17.4% of global gold reserves, up from 11.2% in 2019, while the dollar’s share of global reserves fell to its lowest level since 1994 – and one BRICS member could well buy as much as all other countries combined, according to Michael Harris, technical analyst at EBC Financial Group.
In a new analysis published Tuesday, Harris wrote that central banks bought more gold in the past three years than at any point in modern history – and the concentration of bullion among BRICS+ members’ reserves is skyrocketing.
Harris noted that central banks bought more than total annual mine production of several mid-sized gold-producing countries in 2025. “This is not speculative demand, it is policy,” he said. “The buyers are concentrated, but the trend is broad. Russia, China, India, Turkey, and Poland have led the accumulation, but more than 40 central banks participated in 2025.”
“The buying has been one-directional and price-insensitive, meaning sovereign purchasers absorb supply regardless of whether gold trades at $4,000 or $5,000.”
And the member states of the so-called ‘BRICS+’ – originally Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, with later additions Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE – are among the global leaders in gold acquisition.
“BRICS+ nations now hold over 6,000 tonnes of gold, representing approximately 17.4% of total global central bank reserves, up from 11.2% in 2019,” Harris said. “Russia leads with 2,336 tonnes, China holds 2,298 tonnes, and India follows with 880 tonnes. Together, Russia and China control roughly 74% of the bloc’s total gold holdings.”
Harris pointed out that from 2020 and 2024, BRICS members’ central banks represented over 50% of all sovereign gold purchases globally. “In the first nine months of 2025, BRICS nations added 663 tonnes worth approximately $91 billion,” he said. “Brazil made its first gold purchase since 2021, adding 16 tonnes in September 2025.”
The turning point, however, happened in 2022, when the United States and its allies froze roughly $300 billion in Russian foreign exchange reserves following its invasion of Ukraine.
“That action sent a clear message to every central bank holding dollar-denominated assets: reserves stored in another country’s financial system can be seized,” Harris wrote. “The response was immediate. Central bank gold purchases jumped from roughly 500 tonnes per year before 2022 to over 1,000 tonnes annually in each of the three years since. Gold stored in domestic vaults cannot be frozen or confiscated through the SWIFT system.”
But while gold accumulation represents one side of this structural shift, the other side is the U.S. dollar’s declining share of global reserves.
“IMF COFER data shows the dollar’s share fell from 71% in 1999 to roughly 57% by the end of 2025, its lowest reading since 1994,” Harris said, but noted that foreign central bank holdings of dollar-denominated assets have actually remained steady since 2014. “The decline in share is driven not by active selling but by faster growth in reserves held in euros, yen, gold, and a growing basket of non-traditional currencies.”
Harris cited the 2025 World Gold Council survey which found that 73% of participating central bankers believe the dollar’s reserve share will decrease further over the next five years, while 43% of surveyed central banks plan to increase their gold holdings – both record-high levels.
But while the impact on the dollar side has been gradual, the gold side of the equation has exploded.
“Gold’s share of official reserve assets has more than doubled from below 10% in 2015 to over 23% today,” he wrote. “Much of this reflects gold’s price appreciation, but the direction is unmistakable: central banks are allocating a growing share of their portfolios to gold, and the Hormuz crisis has only reinforced the urgency.”
And the largest economy in the Persian Gulf also represents one of the biggest wildcards in this shift. “Saudi Arabia holds approximately 323 tonnes of gold, just 2.6% of its total reserves,” Harris noted. “For a nation sitting on over $500 billion in reserves, that allocation is remarkably low. A move to just 5% gold allocation would require purchases equivalent to the entire projected central bank demand for 2026 from a single buyer.”
“The Kingdom has not publicly announced plans to increase gold holdings, but its BRICS+ membership, its participation in the mBridge platform, and its deepening ties with Beijing all point toward a strategic repositioning that could logically include gold.”
Turning to the gold market itself, Harris offers an analysis of the impact of central bank demand in creating a structural floor for prices.
“Gold is trading near $4,660 per ounce as of early April 2026, having surged over 60% in 2025 alone,” he said. “The rally has pushed forecasts sharply higher, with Deutsche Bank targeting $6,000, JPMorgan at $6,300, Goldman Sachs at $5,400, and Societe Generale calling $6,000 conservative. The World Gold Council projects 750 to 850 tonnes of central bank purchases in 2026, still far above historical norms.”
“That volume represents roughly 20% of annual global mine supply, absorbed as a one-directional flow regardless of price,” he added. “This creates a structural floor that has made each correction shallower than the last.”
Institutional flows are also serving to reinforce central bank demand. “Gold ETF inflows accelerated through 2025, and China’s insurance sector has been allocated pilot positions in gold,” Harris wrote. “When sovereign, institutional, and retail buyers all move in the same direction simultaneously, the supply-demand picture tightens in ways standard price models fail to capture.
Harris then proposes three potential developments that would accelerate the current sovereign trend away from the dollar and into gold.
Firstly, if China becomes more transparent about their gold purchases and reveals larger-than-expected gold holdings, “that would be an immediate catalyst,” he said. “Second, any formal gold allocation increase by Saudi Arabia or the UAE would confirm that the newest BRICS+ members are following the Russia-China playbook.”
“Third, watch for further declines in the dollar’s reserve share in the next IMF COFER release, since each incremental drop reinforces the narrative driving sovereign gold demand.”
“The shift from dollar reserves to gold is not a prediction but a trend, supported by three years of data, more than 40 participating central banks, and over 3,000 tonnes of metal moved into sovereign vaults since 2022,” Harris concluded. “The dollar remains dominant, but the direction is clear: central banks are building positions in an asset no foreign government can freeze, at a pace not seen in half a century.”
“Gold at $4,660 reflects that reality, and the forecasts above $5,000 reflect where the market thinks this goes next.”
