BC Copper Fluctuated and Closed Up 0.67% as Geopolitical Disruptions Combined with Weakening US Dollar Index [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2605 opened at 87,270 yuan/mt, initially experiencing wild swings to touch a high of 87,360 yuan/mt before maintaining wide fluctuations. After the daytime session opened, copper prices opened lower with a gap, dipping to 86,320 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward to finally close at 86,670 yuan/mt, up 0.67%. Open interest stood at 6,377 lots, an increase of 71 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume at 2,981 lots, indicating bullish position building. On the macro front, the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran and the US dollar index touching a one-month low provided a phased boost to copper prices. However, the current agreement had limited binding force — of the 10 ceasefire terms proposed by Iran, 3 had already been violated, and an Iranian spokesperson also stated that Iran was prepared for a prolonged conflict. Uncertainty persisted over shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, with risk-averse sentiment continuing to disturb futures. Fundamentals side, supply side, imported copper arrivals continued, while domestic supply saw reduced arrivals due to maintenance. Demand side, copper prices mainly fluctuated, and downstream buyers only made just-in-time procurement. Inventory side, as of Thursday, April 9, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide declined 13.06% WoW from the previous Thursday.

SHFE copper 2605 contract closed at 97,810 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract at 86,670 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 97,937 yuan/mt. The price spread between SHFE copper 2605 and BC copper was -127, remaining inverted but narrowing from the previous day.