Vale Plans to Increase Mineral Reserve and Resource Volumes; Overnight, Both LME Copper and SHFE Copper Closed Higher [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Thursday, April 2, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,402.6/mt. It fluctuated downward in early trading and touched a low of $12,334.5/mt, after which the center of copper prices gradually moved higher and climbed to $12,482.5/mt near the close, finally ending at $12,472.6/mt, up 0.73%. Trading volume reached 24,900 lots, and open interest stood at 291,200 lots, down 7,698 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to short covering. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 96,300 yuan/mt. It fluctuated downward in early trading and dipped to 96,210 yuan/mt, after which the center of copper prices fluctuated higher and touched a high of 96,970 yuan/mt near the close, up 0.45%. Trading volume reached 40,900 lots, and open interest stood at 183,400 lots, down 2,869 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to short covering.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) According to the latest engineering and exploration report on mineral reserves and mineral resources released by Vale Base Metals on March 30, the company's total mineral reserves and resources in Canada and Brazil are expected to increase by more than 20% by the end of 2027. [Note: The target of 20% growth by the end of 2027 is measured against the mineral reserves and mineral resources reported as of December 31, 2024, including inferred mineral resources. The 2025 results reported herein represent partial progress toward achieving this target.] The report showed that as of December 31, 2025, total copper reserves and resources rose 6% YoY to 53 million mt, while nickel reserves and resources increased 13% to 14 million mt. Based on existing capacity, current copper resources can support more than 65 years of potential production. The increase in resources of copper, nickel, as well as cobalt, platinum, palladium, gold, and other metals will significantly strengthen its organic growth potential.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of April 1, the SHFE copper 2604 contract rose slightly before moving sideways. It opened at 96,680 yuan/mt, rose after the opening to a high of 97,110 yuan/mt, then pulled back and fluctuated between 96,750 yuan/mt and 97,100 yuan/mt, closing at 95,440 yuan/mt. The contango price spread between futures contracts stood between 80 yuan/mt and 40 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for the front-month SHFE copper contract was at a loss of 220 yuan/mt to 160 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Supply side, the market has recently seen concentrated arrivals of large volumes of imported copper, including Japanese copper brands such as SRP and TAMANO-P, as well as some unregistered cargoes. The continued inflow of these imported cargoes has clearly pressured spot discounts. Demand side, after intraday copper prices rose, order volumes from end-users declined somewhat, with limited acceptance of current price levels and insufficient willingness to chase higher prices, resulting in overall weak consumption performance. In addition, according to SMM, some downstream enterprises engaged in pre-holiday stockpiling, and a few smelters saw relatively good transactions, but constrained by high spot inventory, this was insufficient to reverse the overall weak market pattern. The price spread between high-quality copper and standard-quality copper remained narrow, reflecting that actual consumption demand still dominated the market, though the strength of demand remains to be seen. Overall, under the combined impact of pressure from imported cargoes and cautious downstream procurement, Shanghai spot copper against the 2604 contract is expected to remain at discounts today.
(2) Guangdong: On April 1, spot prices for Guangdong #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; a premium of 80 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; and a premium of 20 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 97,025 yuan/mt, up 1,245 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 96,920 yuan/mt, also up 1,245 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, market activity increased after the contract rollover, and spot premiums continued to rise, with further upside still likely.
(3) Imported copper: On April 1, the average warrant price fell $2/mt from the previous trading day to $65/mt (price range: $60-70/mt); the average B/L price fell $4/mt from the previous trading day to $61/mt (price range: $56-66/mt); and the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price fell $3/mt from the previous trading day to $34/mt (price range: $28-40/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes expected to arrive from mid-April to early May.
(4) Secondary copper: On April 1, the 11:30 futures closing price was 96,870 yuan/mt, up 1,510 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums were -60 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; today, copper scrap prices rose 800 yuan/mt MoM, the copper scrap sales sentiment index rose to 2.46, the purchase sentiment index fell to 2.39, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 366 yuan/mt, up 617 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,315 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, as the center of copper prices moved higher and the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod continued to widen, secondary copper rod enterprises said downstream buyers and traders had picked up goods significantly faster, and there was currently almost no finished product inventories of secondary copper rod in warehouses.
Prices: On the macro front, US ADP employment in March came in slightly above expectations, while the ISM manufacturing PMI hit a more than three-year high but the input price index surged, and retail sales in February rose to the highest level in more than half a year. Overall, the data was solid, though inflationary pressure persisted. On the US-Iran front, Trump said Iran's request for a ceasefire had been rejected and that he was considering withdrawing from NATO; Iran denied negotiating through intermediaries, US intelligence agencies believed Iran had no intention of substantive negotiations, and US media said Trump would announce the end of the war and blame NATO for responsibility in the strait. The market believed the US-Iran war was about to end, and supported by these expectations, copper prices strengthened. Fundamentally, as imported cargoes continued to arrive at port, circulating supply in the market remained ample; on the demand side, however, higher copper prices suppressed buying, with downstream purchase willingness remaining cautious and restocking mainly driven by immediate needs. Overall, copper prices are expected to extend gains today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]