Import Pressure Persisted, and Shanghai Spot Copper Discounts Continued to Weaken [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM News, April 2:

In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2604 contract opened lower with a gap, then continued to fall before stabilizing and rebounding. It opened at 96,870 yuan/mt and fell all the way to 96,310 yuan/mt after the open, then rebounded to 965,599 yuan/mt, after which prices continued to decline and fluctuated between 96,120 yuan/mt and 96,300 yuan/mt. Prices then dropped rapidly to a low of 95,780 yuan/mt before stabilizing and rebounding somewhat. By the close, the price stood at 96,070 yuan/mt. The Contango price spread between futures contracts for adjacent months was between 60 yuan/mt and 10 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for the front-month SHFE copper contract was between 90 yuan/mt and 190 yuan/mt.

Intraday, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.71, up 0.02 MoM, while procurement sentiment was 2.68, down 0.05 MoM. . At the start of morning trading, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at discounts of 80 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt, among which Peru plate, Poland plate, Lufang, Xiangguang, and JCC were quoted at discounts of 60 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt; Dajiang PC, Tiefeng, Dajiang HS, and Jinchuan isa Yongchang were quoted at discounts of 80 yuan/mt to 60 yuan/mt; Jinguan, Jinxin, and Jintun PC were quoted ex-works at a discount of 50 yuan/mt. High-quality copper such as Guixi, Jinchuan (plate), and Jintun plate was quoted at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to 10 yuan/mt; registered SX-EW copper BMK was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt. In the second trading period, prices saw no major changes, and standard-quality copper such as Jinguan, Jintun PC, and Jinxin traded at discounts of 70 yuan/mt to 50 yuan/mt, while registered SX-EW copper BMK traded at quoted discounts of 130 yuan/mt to 120 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in the doldrums. Supply side, as the import window has opened, expectations for subsequent inflows of cargoes from outside China have strengthened, and some imported cargoes circulated intraday, continuously pressuring spot discounts. Meanwhile, according to SMM, some smelters had pre-holiday inventory reduction needs and intended to accelerate shipments, further increasing circulation pressure in the spot market. Demand side, downstream enterprises still showed limited acceptance of current price levels, with overall procurement still dominated by just-in-time procurement and insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. However, as the Qingming Festival approaches, some downstream enterprises may have pre-holiday stockpiling demand, which could provide some support to the spot market, but it is expected to be difficult to reverse the overall weak supply-demand pattern. Overall, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.