Futures:
Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,892/mt. After the opening, LME lead quickly rose above $1,900/mt during the Asian session. However, amid escalating geopolitical tensions outside China and a stronger US dollar index, LME lead gave back most of its intraday gains in the European session, and finally closed at $1,903/mt, up 0.69%.
Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,535 yuan/mt. After the opening, SHFE lead fell rapidly and nearly dropped below 16,400 yuan/mt. Currently, lead ingot destocking and the impact of imported lead coexist in the market, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts during the session. In the latter half, SHFE lead fluctuated for an extended period between 16,440-16,455 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,455 yuan/mt, down 0.12%; its open interest fell by 1,272 lots from the previous trading day to 64,844 lots.
On the Macro Front:
China's Ministry of Commerce launched two trade barrier investigations against the US. The PBOC said it would continue improving the system for preventing and defusing systemic financial risks, deepen reforms of key financial institutions, and promote greater capital replenishment through multiple channels. Iran said the Strait of Hormuz had been closed and that three container ships had been turned back. Saudi Arabia's key east-west oil pipeline bypassing Hormuz has been running at full capacity of 7 million barrels per day, while oil exports from Yanbu Port surged to a record high. On Saturday, only "four ships" passed through Hormuz via the "Iran corridor," two of which were bound for India. Thailand reached an agreement with Iran on the passage of its domestic oil tankers through Hormuz, and Malaysia said Iran had allowed stranded Malaysian tankers to pass. Russia plans to impose a temporary gasoline export ban. Yemen's Houthi forces "entered the war" and said they had struck "important military targets" in Israel, sharply increasing the risk of attacks on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the "second most important energy passage."
:
In the spot lead market last Friday, SHFE lead continued to consolidate. Suppliers in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai held prices firm on shipments, with some quoted at small premiums, while quotations for cargoes from primary lead smelters changed relatively little. Mainstream producing areas were quoted at premiums of 0-100 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price. As for secondary lead, smelter production in north China increased, and quotations rose relatively. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price, while some imported lead circulated in the market and was quoted at parity against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, with average enthusiasm for inquiries. Some mainly purchased under long-term contracts, and spot market trading activity was not high.
Inventory: As of March 27, LME lead inventory decreased by 25 mt from the previous day to 283,075 mt; SHFE lead ingot weekly inventory stood at 57,579 mt, down 8,531 mt WoW.
Lead Price Forecast for Today:
Recently, lead ingot inventory in China has been destocked, including inventories at lead smelters and in social warehouses, and lead prices have shown signs of stabilizing after declines. At present, however, the import window for lead ingots is open, while April will mark the start of the traditional off-season for lead-acid batteries, limiting expectations for lead consumption. In addition, some secondary lead smelters have recently resumed production and increased output, while new maintenance plans are also scheduled for April. With bullish and bearish factors coexisting in the fundamentals, lead prices are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound. If maintenance at lead smelters is carried out as planned, lead prices may have an opportunity to rise relatively.
Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and the SMM internal database model, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.
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