"HRC Prices Decline Amid Off-Season, Cost Support, and Inventory Shifts; Volatility Expected to Continue"

According to China State Railway Group Co., Ltd., from January to May this year, national railways shipped a total of 1.67 billion mt of cargo, up 1.8% YoY; the daily average loaded wagons reached 186,300, up 2.8% YoY, with a record high of 202,400 wagons loaded on May 2. Data shows that from January to May, national railway-rail-water intermodal volume reached 7.58 million TEUs, up 11.0% YoY, and cumulative bookings for the "single-document" logistics product stood at 47,000 TEUs. To further improve commodity vehicle transport services, the railway authorities provided end-to-end logistics solutions. From January to May, national railways shipped a total of 824,000 export commodity vehicles, up 55.5% YoY, of which 422,000 were NEVs, up 110.3% YoY, establishing a "fast lane" for Chinese automakers to go global. In terms of ensuring the transport of key goods, from January to May, national railways shipped 48.806 million mt of grain, up 11.9% YoY. The railway authorities actively supported peak summer demand by increasing the transport of thermal coal for power supply. From January to May, national railways shipped 870 million mt of coal, of which 580 million mt was thermal coal, and coal inventories at direct-supply power plants nationwide remained at relatively high levels.

The American Iron and Steel Institute recently reported that the US imported a total of 1.874 million short tons of steel in April 2026, including 1.378 million short tons of finished steel, up 5.9% and 5.5% respectively from March. From January to April 2026, total US steel imports were 6.972 million short tons, down 29.5% MoM, while finished steel imports stood at 5.118 million short tons, down 30.5% MoM. The finished steel import market share in April is estimated to be 16%, and for the first four months of 2026, 15%.

May's financial data were released, and the topic of "deposit migration" once again sparked market attention. Data recently released by the central bank shows that after a decline of 1.94 trillion yuan in April, household deposits continued to shrink by 110 billion yuan in May, with a total reduction of 2.05 trillion yuan over the two months. This marks a rare occurrence in nearly a decade of household deposits posting negative growth for two consecutive months. Over the same period, deposits at non-bank financial institutions increased by a combined 3.61 trillion yuan, with the "seesaw" effect persisting. Another phenomenon that has drawn significant attention is the continued deleveraging in the household sector: in May, household loans decreased by 141.2 billion yuan, with a YoY decline that widened by 195.2 billion yuan (compared to an increase of 54 billion yuan in the same period last year). Industry experts have repeatedly noted that the flow of household deposits to non-bank institutions merely changes the structure of bank deposits, and this trend precisely reflects the deepening of China's financial market. A more noteworthy positive signal is that as the growth rate of household deposits continues to pull back, the "scissors gap" between it and the growth of M2 (broad money) continues to narrow and has remained negative for five consecutive months, indicating a trend of marginal fund mobilization. Some institutional sources believe that the capital cycle from households to enterprises and non-bank institutions is restarting, building momentum for the improvement of the domestic economic cycle.