Published：May 13, 2026
The World Bank recently revised its precious metals outlook for 2026. The group now anticipates this basket of commodities to rise collectively by 42% in 2026. This represents a significant upward shift in projections, primarily fueled by the escalating Middle East conflict, rampant energy supply disruptions, dampened global growth, and heightened financial uncertainty.
Precious Metals Lead the Commodity Complex
In January 2026, the World Bank issued a commodities report that predicted a positive jump in its precious metals index for the year. This grouping holds gold, silver, and platinum, notably excluding palladium.
Within Q1 alone, each asset in this basket of precious metals soared above the group’s expectations. Furthermore, each of these metals climbed to record highs in the early innings of the year.
- Gold prices shot up beyond $5,400/oz.
- Silver exploded to $116/oz.
- Platinum prices jumped to $2,770/oz.
In late April, the World Bank issued another commodities report raising its precious metals outlook. Now, the group projects this collection of metals will surge by 42% throughout 2026, compared to the averages in 2025.
Crucially, precious metals are projected to outperform nearly all other commodities, including base metals, fertilizer, and even energy prices.
The global bank’s forecasts position silver as the highest-performing metal in 2026, with platinum as a close second. While gold is also expected to rise significantly, the yellow metal’s already elevated value means smaller percentage gains.
Why the World Bank Expects Precious Metals to Rise
A handful of long-running and newly forming factors are propelling the World Bank’s precious metals predictions higher for 2026. This fuel is a combination of geopolitical, macroeconomic, and fiscal policy issues:
1. Geopolitical Safe-Haven Demand
Among the more pressing and immediate tailwinds for precious metals is war in Iran, which has spilt over into the broader Middle East region. The conflict has effectively choked off the Hormuz Strait, where nearly 20% of the world’s oil flows through. Drone and artillery attacks on various energy installations throughout the Gulf States further complicate the energy crisis.
In response, investors have been actively rotating into safe-haven assets, such as precious metals, to offset the economically damaging effects of the oil shock and broader energy shortage. Historically, gold has consistently shown a tendency to perform well during periods of geopolitical turmoil and a loss of confidence in fiat systems.
2. Inflationary Energy Shock
March marked the single largest inflation-adjusted quarterly rise in oil since 1988, per the Energy Information Administration. Throughout Q1, Brent crude nearly doubled, leaping from $61 to $118 per barrel. In March alone, liquid natural gas costs rose by 59% in European markets and by 94% in Asia. This collective surge in energy prices threatens to drive global inflation higher as loftier fuel costs drive up prices in virtually all sectors.
The World Bank revised its inflation forecasts for Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) to a staggering 5.1%. Once again, precious metals stand to gain, especially gold, which has a proven track record going back centuries for keeping pace with inflation.
3. Market Volatility & Policy Uncertainty
The international financial institution further warns that the combination of geopolitical instability and rising inflation threatens to undermine market confidence and fiscal policy direction.
Mainstream assets heavily tied to fiat currencies tend to wane during periods of high uncertainty, increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets. Gold demand is likely to increase from central banks, major financial institutions, and retail investors as traditional assets struggle.
4. Slowing Growth & Stagflation Risks
At the same time, EMDE inflation is expected to rise, and growth across most economies is projected to fall, creating a one-two punch of economic hardship. This trend is playing out in advanced economies, too, with the U.S. gross domestic product hitting only 0.7% in Q4 2025. The economy recovered slightly in Q1 2026, reaching 2%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, but it remains far from ideal levels.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
The alarming trifecta of slowing growth, rising inflation, and soaring commodity prices has the World Bank cautioning about the elevated odds of stagflation. In this challenging economic climate, all the tailwinds for precious metals would only intensify.
Precious Metals Forecasts Remain Elevated
Although precious metals have moderated since their early-year highs, experts across various sectors remain bullish on the upward potential of these commodities. Most notably, 2026 gold price forecasts remain above $6,000/oz. Meanwhile, silver price predictions for the year sit near $105/oz. These positive expectations fall right in line with the World Bank’s upward revision of its earlier predictions, signaling a strong potential for further growth among these key precious metals.
Navigate Global Turmoil with Our Free Precious Metals Guide
If you’re interested in learning more about how you can strategically position your portfolio to take advantage of these precious metals, grab a FREE copy of our Precious Metals Investment Guide. It covers everything you need to know about buying, holding, and managing physical gold and silver to protect your wealth.
Source：https://www.sbcgold.com/blog/world-bank-sees-precious-metals-surging-42-in-2026-amid-global-turmoil/
