Fed Holds Rates, Dot Plot Signals Hawkish Stance with Potential Rate Hike This Year

Published: Jun 18, 2026 22:42

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US Fed June FOMC "Warsh Debut" — rates held steady at 3.50%-3.75% (fourth consecutive hold), but the dot plot was unexpectedly hawkish: nine officials projected at least one rate hike this year, and the median was raised from 3.4% to 3.8%. Warsh himself "did not submit a projection" in the dot plot, which was interpreted as a complete overhaul of the forward guidance framework. In the short term, this weighs on copper prices, but the fundamental tight balance remains unchanged.

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