Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,949/mt. During the Asian session, prices fluctuated upward, touching a high of $1,962.5/mt. Entering the European session, lead prices shifted to fluctuate downward. Although there were slight rebounds during the period, the momentum was limited. Prices continued to weaken during the evening session, dipping to a low of $1,940/mt, before rebounding slightly at the end of the session, ultimately closing at $1,947.5/mt, up $8.5/mt, a gain of 0.44%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,805 yuan/mt. After a brief pullback at the start, prices moved higher in a volatile manner, touching a high of 16,825 yuan/mt, then moved sideways within the 16,785-16,810 yuan/mt range. During the midnight session, lead prices fluctuated downward, dipping to a low of 16,745 yuan/mt, before rebounding slightly at the end of the session, ultimately closing at 16,765 yuan/mt, recording a bearish candlestick, down 35 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.21%.
On the macro front:
1. Iranian media: The Strait of Hormuz has been fully closed. 2. Iranian media: If Israeli attacks on Lebanon do not stop, Iran will withdraw from the ceasefire. 3. "US Fed mouthpiece": The ceasefire agreement made it harder for the US Fed to decide. 4. US Fed meeting minutes: More officials mentioned the possibility of rate hikes. 5. US media: Trump considered partially withdrawing US troops from NATO allies. 6. World Gold Council: Gold ETFs saw record capital outflows in March. 7. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council established the Overseas State-owned Assets Bureau. 8. Iran sought security guarantees from China? The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded.
Spot fundamentals:
Boosted by positive macro news, SHFE lead continued to hold up well. Some suppliers lowered discounts for shipments, while others had limited cargoes and temporarily offered no quotes. Quotes for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site diverged, with mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of -30 to +50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelter shipments also diverged, with some holding prices firm for shipments and others expanding discounts for shipments. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of -50 to 0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, making it difficult to close deals at high prices in the spot market, with some premium cargoes attracting no interest.
Inventory side, as of April 8, LME lead inventory decreased by 2,400 mt to 279,025 mt. As of April 7, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory rebounded slightly.
Lead price forecast for today:
Supply side, China's five-region lead ingot social inventory saw a slight inventory buildup. Secondary lead enterprises saw slower-than-expected production resumptions due to profit constraints. Some smelters cut production slightly this week due to insufficient raw material inventory. Meanwhile, some smelters that resumed production in mid-to-late March were still in the capacity ramp-up stage. The supply side presented a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors. Demand side, lead prices fluctuated at highs, suppressing downstream purchase willingness. Wait-and-see sentiment was strong in the market, with high-priced spot cargoes seeing sluggish transactions, and some premium varieties attracting little interest. SHFE lead is expected to maintain a range-bound consolidation trend in the short term.
