The International Macro Environment Presented a Mixed Bullish-Bearish Landscape, and Tin Prices Were Expected to Move Sideways at High Levels This Week [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, May 18, 2026

Last week, the international macro environment presented a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors. The ongoing escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East gradually transmitted inflationary pressure to economies such as South Korea, testing the stability of global supply chains. In the semiconductor sector, wage negotiations between Samsung Electronics and its South Korean labor union broke down, with threats of a large-scale strike raising market concerns over disruptions to high-end chip supply. Combined with concentrated profit-taking sell-offs in the U.S. chip sector, sentiment turned cautious in the short term. However, downstream computing power demand fundamentals remained intact, with enterprises such as Tencent explicitly stating plans to increase capital expenditure and adopt domestically produced chips in H2, providing some room for imagination regarding tin's longer-term consumption. Overall, macro signals offered no clear directional guidance for tin prices.

On the China tin market front, spot supply-demand imbalance persisted throughout the week, exhibiting a phased characteristic of stable supply and weak demand. Supply side, smelters generally maintained a steady production pace, with no significant tightening expectations emerging from the ore side, and refined tin output remained relatively stable. Demand side, it was notably suppressed by elevated absolute prices. As the traditional peak season effect faded, the pace of new orders from end-user solder and electronics enterprises slowed down, with downstream players broadly facing cost pass-through pressure. Purchase willingness remained subdued, and material stockpiling cycles shortened noticeably. Market trading was mostly driven by rigid small-lot demand, with buying sentiment for chasing highs being extremely cautious. Sluggish shipments in the trading segment disrupted the prior social inventory destocking pace, leaving sellers and buyers in a stalemate.

Overall assessment: tin prices currently lack clear directional drivers. The supply side offers no significant contraction support, while weak demand drags on inventory digestion, creating notable resistance to price rise. However, underlying computing power and semiconductor demand expectations have not yet reversed, providing psychological support on the downside. Tin prices are expected to continue moving sideways at elevated levels this week, with the center at risk of pulling back slightly. Investors are advised to remain cautious, primarily adopting a wait-and-see approach, refraining from chasing highs, and closely monitoring the pace of actual downstream order recovery and the evolution of ex-China semiconductor supply chain disruption events.