Holiday Factors Led to Slight Inventory Buildup of Lead Ingot Social Inventory Across Five Regions, Downstream Demand-Side Restocking Willingness Remained Subdued [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,930.5/mt. During the Asian session, prices briefly fluctuated upward before pulling back under pressure, dipping to around $1,924.5/mt, then rebounded slightly before turning to fluctuate downward again; during the European session, lead prices fluctuated higher, touching an intraday high of $1,948.5/mt before dropping sharply, and in the late session lead prices gradually recovered to repair the losses, ultimately closing at $1,939/mt, up $4.5/mt, a gain of 0.23%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,715 yuan/mt, surged quickly at the start of the session, then pulled back under pressure, moved sideways briefly in the 16,730-16,760 yuan/mt range before trending higher, touching a high of 16,785 yuan/mt, dipped slightly near the close, and ultimately settled at 16,755 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 25 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.15%.

On the macro front:

1. Trump agreed to suspend bombing and strikes on Iran for two weeks. 2. Trump: Iran's 10-point proposal is a viable plan that can be used for negotiations. 3. Iranian media: The situation on Kharg Island has been brought under control. 4. Survey: OPEC oil production in March saw the largest decline in decades. 5. PBOC increased gold holdings for the 17th consecutive month. 6. The National Services Industry Conference is about to convene, with measures to expand and improve the services sector set to be rolled out.

Spot fundamentals:

SHFE lead pulled back relatively after surging higher. Returning from the holiday, suppliers were mostly active in shipments, with some lowering quoted premiums, especially for cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelter production sites. Mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of -25~+25 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters quoted in line with the market, with secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of -50~0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. However, circulating spot cargoes in the market were ample, and coupled with elevated lead prices, downstream enterprises had strong wait-and-see sentiment, with minimal restocking after the holiday.

Inventory side, as of April 7, LME lead inventory decreased by 225 mt to 281,425 mt; SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory rebounded slightly.

Lead price forecast for today:

Supply side, China's five-region lead ingot social inventory saw slight inventory buildup due to the Qingming Festival holiday; secondary lead enterprises accelerated resumption of production after the holiday with capacity continuing to release, and combined with imported lead inflows, circulating spot cargoes in the market were ample. Demand side, suppressed by elevated lead prices, downstream enterprises had strong wait-and-see sentiment, with subdued willingness to restock after the holiday. Resistance above SHFE lead is prominent, and lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.