SHFE tin swung wildly between 394,000 and 411,000 yuan/mt throughout the week. Amid the supply-demand stalemate, it is expected to continue consolidating at highs [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, June 15, 2026

Market Review: The most-traded SHFE tin contract showed a first-weakening-then-strengthening trend during the week, with the price center fluctuating widely around the 400,000 yuan/mt mark. Early in the week, futures pulled back for consecutive sessions and briefly fell below this round-number level, pressured by expectations of overseas interest rate hikes and a downturn in technology stocks. Mid-week, US CPI data stoked inflation concerns, and intensifying geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East drove prices down to around 394,000 yuan/mt. Near the weekend, recovering demand for semiconductors and AI computing power, along with expectations of a phased easing in geopolitical tensions, drove a rebound in futures to above 410,000 yuan/mt. The overall fluctuation range was concentrated between 394,000 and 411,000 yuan/mt. In the spot market, just-in-time procurement willingness among downstream players was released to some extent when prices fell early in the week, with moderate inquiry and trading sentiment. However, as prices stabilized and rebounded, the dampening effect of high prices resurfaced, spot trades quickly cooled, and year-end purchasing was cautious. Overall, the market showed a stalemate pattern of limited restocking at low prices and frozen transactions at high prices.

Market Forecast: On the international macro front, the ongoing investment boom in global artificial intelligence provides a long-term narrative underpinning tin’s end-use demand. However, news that the US Department of Defense added some Chinese enterprises to a list of military companies intensified concerns over China-US trade relations, making macro sentiment more complex. Looking at supply and demand in China’s tin market, this week was generally characterized by stable supply and a wait-and-see attitude toward demand. On the supply side, most smelters maintained steady production with a smooth pace of shipments. On the demand side, downstream enterprises generally adopted a cautious stance, with purchasing mainly following a band-trading strategy of “cover a small volume on dips, and buy more on further declines,” and overall consumption did not see a large-scale release. After tin prices surged to record highs early in the week, the spot market effectively ground to a halt, leading smelters to lock in profits by registering warrants. As futures prices pulled back to the 400,000 yuan/mt mark, previously price-suppressed just-in-time procurement demand was briefly released, and market inquiry and trading sentiment recovered somewhat. However, the stimulative effect of low prices on consumption showed clear signs of diminishing marginal returns. When prices rebounded, downstream players quickly returned to a wait-and-see stance, and spot market transactions turned cold again. Although global semiconductor equipment sales hit a record high in Q1, lending long-term support to tin solder demand, the order-driven purchasing pattern among downstream enterprises has not changed in the short term. In summary, current tin prices lack a clear unidirectional driver. Against a backdrop of a supply-demand stalemate in fundamentals, tin prices are expected to hover at highs around 400,000 yuan/mt next week. Investors should closely monitor macro policy moves and downstream restocking pace. Amid repeated price fluctuations, it is recommended to focus primarily on band trading to control risks.