SMM Nickel, June 12:
Macro and Market News:
(1) Hours after Trump announced he would bomb Iran again, Trump stated that, given the consultation results with Iran have been approved by Iran’s top leadership, the strike on Iran tonight is canceled. The US-Iran agreement has entered the finalization stage and is expected to be signed in Europe this weekend.
(2) The European Central Bank raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, marking the first hike in nearly three years. ECB President Lagarde stated that today’s decision is not an aggressive move, and the 25-basis-point hike serves as a signal.
Spot Market:
On June 12, SMM #1 refined nickel price rose by 900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Regarding spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,750 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel premiums ranged from -500 to 400 yuan/mt.
Futures Market:
The most-traded SHFE nickel 2607 contract rebounded in early trading, closing the morning session at 135,370 yuan/mt, up 0.94%.
US CPI exceeded expectations, fueling rate hike expectations, and the world entered a monetary tightening window. On the Indonesia side, the premium accumulated earlier due to ore scarcity is being corrected. China’s refined nickel inventory has reached a historic high, and domestic inventory continues to increase. Visible inventory pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated, and nickel prices are under pressure in the short term.
