Driven by developments in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the tin market in and outside China generally fluctuated at highs [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary, April 7, 2026

Last week, the tin market in and outside China generally fluctuated at highs, with price movements mainly driven by developments in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Macro sentiment repeatedly shifted between rising ceasefire expectations and lingering conflict risks, leading to intensified fluctuations in futures. Fundamentally, the market showed weak supply and weak demand. On the supply side, as most smelters gradually resumed production and operations in March, output recovered from the holiday state, and April is expected to focus mainly on stable production. However, demand remained weak. Although downstream enterprises such as solder producers also gradually resumed operations, new orders were relatively mediocre, and purchasing sentiment was generally cautious. With concentrated restocking already completed earlier when prices were low, the market is currently mainly digesting existing inventory and purchasing as needed, causing spot market trading to shift from active at the beginning of the week to mediocre. High prices significantly suppressed actual transactions, showing the characteristic of “prices quoted but no market.” Nevertheless, extremely low global visible inventory provided rigid support for prices. Against the backdrop of destocking, suppliers kept quotes firm, and spot premiums remained high. Looking ahead, SHFE tin prices are expected to maintain wild swings at high levels. Upside room will be capped by weak actual demand, while downside will be supported by low inventory. Investors need to closely monitor substantive progress in the Middle East geopolitical situation, the recovery of downstream orders, and changes in spot inventory.