Widening Price Spread Between Futures Contracts Strengthens Contango Logic, Shanghai Spot Copper Discounts Narrow Steadily [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM April 8:

During the morning session, the SHFE copper 2604 contract opened with a gap up before moving sideways with a fluctuating trend. The opening price was 95,880 yuan/mt. After the open, prices quickly surged, touching a high of 97,960 yuan/mt, then pulled back slightly, fluctuating between 97,520 yuan/mt and 97,800 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 97,620 yuan/mt. The inter-month price spread between futures contracts was in Contango ranging from 90 yuan/mt to 40 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper on the current-month contract ranged from a loss of 20 yuan/mt to a profit of 140 yuan/mt.

Intraday, the selling sentiment for copper cathode in the Shanghai area was 2.71, down 0.05 MoM, and the procurement sentiment was 2.68, down 0.09 MoM.. At the start of the morning session, suppliers offered standard-quality copper at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt, with Lufang and JCC quoting a discount of 30 yuan/mt, Dajiang PC, Tiefeng, Jinfeng, Jintong Yusheng, Zijin, Honglu, and Dajiang HS quoting discounts of 50-30 yuan/mt, and Jinguan, Jinxin, and Jintun PC quoting ex-factory discounts of 20 yuan/mt. Some low-priced cargoes were quickly transacted. High-quality copper such as Guixi and Jintun plate were quoted at parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Entering the second trading session, low-priced cargoes were hard to find in the market, and suppliers had a strong willingness to hold prices firm. Standard-quality copper SPCC-ILO, Jinchuan ISA, etc. were quoted at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to parity. High-quality Jinchuan (plate) was transacted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt. Registered SX-EW copper BMK was quoted at a discount of 100 yuan/mt. Non-registered copper was quoted at discounts of 150-120 yuan/mt. In addition, available spot cargo in the Jiangsu area remained tight, and some downstream enterprises faced difficulties in sourcing supplies.

Outlook for tomorrow: the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Demand side, after the rapid rise in copper prices, orders from downstream enterprises decreased somewhat, with most enterprises still primarily making just-in-time procurement, though demand resilience persists. Market structure side, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts widened slightly. Suppliers holding long positions on the near-month contract, under the contango structure, were more inclined to hold open interest for delivery rather than sell spot cargo at low prices, showing low willingness to sell at low prices and a strong willingness to hold prices firm. Overall, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.